The U.S. consumer helps to keep the economy afloat

The economic recovery may be slowing down, but here are 3 reasons to bank on the U.S. consumer.

Highlighting an Under-Appreciated Positive: The U.S. Consumer Weekly credit and debit card spending at major U.S. retailers – Target, Walmart, Amazon, Best Buy, and Kohls – has been tracking higher since the beginning of the year. Steady spending comes in spite of record job losses and a pandemic that remains a public health and economic risk. Challenging times abound, but U.S. consumers remain resilient. There have been a few key factors supporting spending. For one, the economic recession did not touch all sectors and industries. While some areas of the economy experienced sharp decline in activity (retail, hospitality, airlines, food services), others thrived (technology, consumer discretionary, home goods, consumer staples). The federal government was quick to respond to workers and families in the former category, and the $600/week additional unemployment benefit and stimulus checks proved a robust safety net. Personal incomes and the savings rate actually went up over the summer.1 To be fair, those stimulus tailwinds are fading, and economic growth momentum appears likely to slow down until more stimulus is passed and/or a vaccine is widely distributed. The timing of either outcome remains uncertain. Even still, I believe the U.S. consumer remains an under-appreciated positive, and I think spending will hold up in the coming quarters better than most expect. Here are three reasons why. Hard Data & Economic Indicators You Should Keep an Eye On! In addition to consumer spending data, there are additional data points and economic indicators that you should pay attention to in this turbulent time. To help you focus on the hard data and other factors that could impact your investments, I am offering all readers our just-released Stock Market Outlook report. This report contains some of our key forecasts to consider such as: A look at potential Covid-19 vaccines U.S. returns expectations for 2020 Background on the U.S. fiscal stimulus program Why you should be careful in determining what S&P 500 data to use Zacks Rank S&P 500 Sector Picks Status of global energy markets What produces 2020 optimism? And much more If you have $500,000 or more to invest and want to learn more about these forecasts, click on the link below to get your free report today! IT'S FREE. Download the Just-Released November 2020 Stock Market Outlook2 1. Households, Surprisingly, are in a Reasonably Strong Financial Position One key measure for how well households are holding up is to look at debt payments as a percent of disposable personal income, which are now at a 30+ year low. Household Debt Payments as a Percent of Income are Falling – A Good Sign Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis3 Low interest rates are part of the equation. Many households have been able to refinance existing debt to make it more affordable, while others used the economic growth of the last decade to trim debt on balance sheets. While only about 50% of Americans own stocks, the market's surge in the last bull market also boosted net worth and improved many households' financial positions going into the pandemic. An economic rebound in the coming years – which I see as highly likely – should only add to this financial position and drive spending in the process. 2. Steady Rebound in the Labor Markets Early in the pandemic, some economists were predicting an unemployment rate north of 20%, but the labor market proved more resilient than expected. After reaching a peak of 14.7% in June, the unemployment rate fell back to 7.9% in September. Initial jobless claims – a key indicator of labor market health and improvement – has also been steadily declining, suggesting the number of layoffs is easing: Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis4 I expect the jobs market to continue along this path, with modest improvements through Q1 2021. But I am also in the camp of seeing a surge in hiring once the pandemic risk fades, which I believe is likely to arrive sometime early-to-mid next year. Improvements to the job markets should correspond fairly tightly to gains in spending. 3. Downstream Effects of Housing Market Strength Sales of previously-owned homes rose to a 14-year high in September, continuing a bullish trend for housing that has persisted all year. Interestingly, much of the new growth is being driven by millennials, who previously had been reluctant to enter the housing market as family formation lagged and as they favored renting. For the first time, millennials accounted for over 50% of new home loans. Many are migrating out of cities and into the suburbs—with more space for home offices. Downstream effects of the housing boom have been evident in consumer spending on furniture, appliances, and home improvement, which has outperformed spending across most other sectors – a trend I expect to continue. Bottom Line for Investors Year-to-date, Consumer Discretionary stocks are up +23.4%, while Technology stocks are up +28.7%. No other sector has posted a return greater than +9% for the year, and the S&P 500 is up +5.6% (through September 30). The U.S. consumer remains resilient. Gains in Consumer Discretionary have largely been led by e-commerce companies, but we have also seen marked strength in home improvement, home goods, electronics, general merchandise retailers, and home builders. With more economic growth ahead (in my view), slow and steady improvements to the labor market, and more fiscal stimulus in the pipeline, I'm staying bullish on the U.S. consumer. To help you focus confidently on hard data and key economic indicators that can help guide your investments throughout the rest of this year and into 2021, I am offering all readers our Just-Released November 2020 Stock Market Outlook Report.. This report looks at several factors that are producing optimism right now and contains some of our key forecasts to consider such as: A look at potential Covid-19 vaccines U.S. returns expectations for 2020 Background on the U.S. fiscal stimulus program Why you should be careful in determining what S&P 500 data to use Zacks Rank S&P 500 Sector Picks Status of global energy markets What produces 2020 optimism? And much more If you have $500,000 or more to invest and want to learn more about these forecasts, click on the link below to get your free report today! 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