Sell in May and Go Away? No Way

Listen to the technical indicators instead

You are receiving this email because you signed up to receive emails from True Market Insiders, rebranding to Sector Edge. Unsubscribe here Keep the emails you value from falling into your spam folder. Whitelist True Market Insiders. Forgot your login information? Click here.   Weekly Market Update Today is April 30, 2022   Hey TMI Subscriber, According to the Farmer's Almanac, tomorrow, May 1, is May Day. It's a day meant to celebrate spring and all the things that tend to hibernate during the prior winter months.   So, Happy May Day one day early!   According to the Stock Trader's Almanac, however, this first day of May means something completely different, and it's not so celebratory in nature.   The famous couplet written about by publisher Jeffrey Hirsch and company, "Sell in May and Go Away," is an investment adage that suggests the market has predictable cycles consisting of good months for investing and bad months for investing.   It warns investors to sell their stocks in May, move to cash, and then get back into the market in November. According to the Almanac, there's some truth behind this seasonal market wisdom.   If you run the numbers going back to 1929, you find that the six-month period from May to November is generally the weakest part of the calendar year for stocks.   Since 1945, the S&P 500 has gained an average of about 2% from May through October. That compares with a roughly 6% average gain from November through April.     More recently (since 1990) the average gain for the May-October period has been about 3%, and the average gain for the November-April period has been about 7%.   Over the 90 years since the Almanac was first published, there were a number of years when investors who stayed out of the market from May to late-October ended up paying dearly.   In fact, between 2010 and 2020, you would have benefited by "selling in May and going away" only in the year 2011.    In every other year of that decade, you would have outperformed the market by somewhere between 0.8% and 13.9% by staying invested over that period.   How did this "guideline" play out in 2021?    As it happens, not very well.   Except for a few brief sell-offs, the S&P 500 gained 26.9% for the year and gained 10.9% from May through October.   So, that leads to the obvious question. Should you sell in May and go away?   The unequivocal answer for TMI subscribers (and what should be the answer for you) is "it all depends on what our technical indicators are telling us."   Today, those indicators (and Chris Rowe) have already told us to sell everything, as the markets began to unravel. The exception is Commodities, the one asset class (of the six we monitor) that's blowing away all others. (The others being U.S. Equities, International Equities, Cash, Currency,and Fixed Income.)     But staying in cash and Commodities until November could be disastrous.    It's just a matter of time before the markets hit bottom and money begins to flow back into stocks with a vengeance.   Like any other time of the year, TMI will track the 45 sectors we monitor in our Sector Prophets Pro data platform, and invest in sectors showing Demand in control.   Doesn't matter if it's in Healthcare, Financials, Technology, or any of the others. The strongest stocks in the strongest sectors will deserve your attention and your investing dollars.   One of the best ways to get help navigating the market today is by listening to a replay of Chris Rowe's Wealth Shield Live Trade Room.    Chris reveals the things bringing the entire market down and how you can stay safe and come out on top.   You can watch it by clicking here.    Keep the faith! Enjoy this week's TMI articles, the final batch in honor of National Financial Literacy Month. This Week in True Market Insider  April 25 - April 29, 2022   Micro-Cap Monday: The Different Types of Inflation — Bill Spencer   We may not be able to control inflation, but we can learn about each type and their impact on the economy and your investments. Bill Spencer tells you everything you need to know.   Answering Your Questions About Today's Market — Chris Rowe   Chris Rowe recently held his first Facebook live event. Here, he answers the questions he didn't have time to respond to during the event. If you'd like to see Chris' take on the state of the market, click here.   Three Ways To Protect Yourself and Profit In This Bear Market — Chris Rowe   Chris Rowe believes that in the coming months some crazy things could happen to the economy that will affect you deeply. Here, he talks about what's really important and how to protect yourself and profit in this bear market.   The Relationship Between Stocks, Bonds, and Commodities, and Why It Matters to You — Costas Bocelli   In the stock market, nothing is certain except uncertainty. But Costas Bocelli says that knowing how (and why) asset classes move together or separately will help you know what to invest in at any given point in the economic cycle.   The 7 Most Important SEC Filings Every Investor Should Know — Karen Riccio   Karen Riccio presents TMI's final April National Financial Literacy Month article. That's fitting because your investment buck should start and stop with her topic, the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the filings every investor should know. Copyright © 2022 True Market Insiders, All rights reserved. Our mailing address is: 7901 4th St. N STE 6113 St. Petersburg, FL 33702 Want to change how you receive these emails? You can change your preferences here   DISCLAIMER The information contained herein has been prepared without regard to any particular investor's investment objectives, financial situation, and needs. Accordingly, investors should not act on any recommendation (express or implied) or information in this material without obtaining specific advice from their financial advisors and should not rely on information herein as the primary basis for their investment decisions. True Market Insiders LLC is not an investment advisor and is not licensed to give specific financial advice. 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