| | | You are receiving this as part of your subscription to Oil & Energy Investor. To remove your email from this list, unsubscribe here. | | | | | | | Friday, January 31, 2020 | The Latest Black Swan Does Not Float
By Dr. Kent Moors | Oil prices have been struggling to stabilize in the wake of the coronavirus (Wuhan virus) outbreak and the global panic developing because of it. True to form, some commentators have begun to describe this as a black swan event.
As such, I am drawn back to an Oil and Energy Investor article written more than five years ago. Then, the event was an OPEC decision to defend market share rather than price. That move ushered in an over 45 percent collapse in crude oil prices before the cartel (and outside "allies" led by Russia) began cutting production.
As I noted at the time, I have never been particularly attracted to this way of "describing" matters observers had not expected or could not predict. Basically, a black swan is an outlier, a development that fails to follow any normal pattern.
Black swan theory has been popularized in the work of Nassim Nicholas Taleb, a well-known risk analyst and statistician. Taleb wanted to develop an approach that could deal with: (1) the disproportionate role of high-profile, hard-to-predict, and rare events that are beyond the realm of normal expectations in history, science, finance, and technology; (2) the non-computability of the probability of the consequential rare events using scientific methods (owing to the very nature of small probabilities); and (3) the psychological biases that make people individually and collectively blind to uncertainty and unaware of the massive role of the rare event in historical affairs.
To put matters in perspective, Taleb considered World War I, the breakup of the Soviet Union, 9/11, and the Internet as examples of black swan events, so these are hardly everyday occurrences.
Almost 20 years ago, Taleb applied his approach to the stock market and ended up as a regular on financial TV thereafter, whenever matters seem to be going well off course. As a consequence, this has led to the black swan being used as an "explanation" for all kinds of things. It is the obverse of the "this time is different" mantra.
Well, over the past week there have been several attempts to claim the Chinese virus as a black swan event.
It isn't. But calling it one may be a good way of clouding up what really is happening.
| | | | | | | | | | | | | "Dark Burst" Technology Sets the Bar for the Next Decade of Energy Efficiency
|  | This three-pound device has turned the world's most abundant energy source into a "24/7 fuel"... and its distribution to just one state will spark a $32.5 billion opportunity for this tiny company. They could hold a virtual monopoly, and their proprietary device is set to go global. Today, you have one last chance to lock in a ground-floor opportunity. Click here to learn how you can get a stake in this tiny company set for a projected 10,285% sales surge.
| | | | | | |  | High Stakes: A Supremacy Standoff in the South China Sea
| With the help of one tiny defense company, the U.S. Navy could continue its reign as the world's leading military power. But as tensions continue to rise, the Pentagon is kicking things into overdrive - and this tiny defense company's worth is likely following suit. Take a look...
| | | | | | | | | Please do not reply to this email. It was sent from an unmonitored mailbox.
You are receiving this e-mail at its028@gmail.com, as part of your subscription to Oil & Energy Investor. To remove your email from this list: Unsubscribe here or manage your Money Map Press Email Preferences.
To cancel, or for any other questions or requests, please contact our Customer Service team:
Online
Phone: 888-384-8339 (North America) 443-353-4519 (International)
Mail: Oil & Energy Investor | Attn: Member Services | 1125 N Charles Street | Baltimore, MD 21201
Fax: 410-622-3050
Our Customer Service team is available Monday - Friday between 9:00 AM and 5:00 PM ET.
© 2020 Money Map Press. All Rights Reserved.
Nothing in this email should be considered personalized financial advice. Although our employees may answer your general customer service questions, they are not licensed under securities laws to address your particular investment situation. No communication by our employees to you should be deemed as personalized financial advice.
We expressly forbid our writers from having a financial interest in any security recommended to our readers. All of our employees and agents must wait 24 hours after on-line publication or 72 hours after the mailing of printed-only publication prior to following an initial recommendation. Any investments recommended in this letter should be made only after consulting with your investment advisor and only after reviewing the prospectus or financial statements of the company.
Protected by copyright laws of the United States and international treaties. This Newsletter may only be used pursuant to the subscription agreement and any reproduction, copying, or redistribution (electronic or otherwise, including on the world wide web), in whole or in part, is strictly prohibited without the express written permission of: Money Map Press. 1125 N Charles Street, Baltimore MD 21201.
Website | Privacy Policy | Terms & Conditions | |
没有评论:
发表评论