2019年4月1日星期一

Max Monday: Get This Take on the Fed from a Mob Lawyer Turned Las Vegas Mayor

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April 1, 2019

Max Monday: Get This Take on the Fed from a Mob Lawyer Turned Las Vegas Mayor
By Tim Melvin

Dear Reader,

Happy Monday!

This Week's Worthwhile Books

Being Oscar - by Oscar Goodman

Mob lawyer turned successful Las Vegas mayor, Oscar Goodman lives life with a martini in hand. When asked what two things he would want if he was stranded on a desert island, he replied, "A bottle of Sapphire Gin and a show girl." His book is a very entertaining read, but Goodman also has some very interesting things to say about federal government overreach, politics, and a host of other topics. This is one of my favorite autobiographies of all time, and I hope you enjoy it as much as I did.

The Great Equalizer - by David Smick

Capitalism is under attack all over the world today and some of the solutions to reviving the American-and European for that matter-economy are closely related to socialism and all the wonderful things that philosophy has done for the world. Economist and founder of International Economy David Smick offers some harsh criticism of the current crony capitalism partnership of big business and big government but offers a better solution. He lays out a solid plan for using Main Street capitalism to boost the economy, create jobs, and reduce income equality. I do not agree with everything in the book, but I do agree with a lot of it. I found it all to be thought provoking and a lot more sensible than some of the proposals being seriously considered right now in the U.S. Congress.

This Week's Quick Read Articles

M&T Bancorp Shareholder Letter

M&T CEO René F. Jones is one of the best in the business. He has been with the bank since 1992 and as CFO he negotiated the turbulent waters of the credit meltdown with far more success than most of his peers. He became CEO in 2017 and since then has guided the bank very successfully. His shareholder letter this year is full of insights onto the state of banking and the U.S. economy that are must-read material. The discussion of non-bank lenders is not only interesting but mildly disturbing if you ponder the implications for the financial markets should we slip back into a recession. Learning from smart people is how get better at investing (and living) and Mr. Jones is indeed a very smart person with much to teach us.

In Search of Temperament V - Probabilistic Thinking

Successful investing involves being able to think in terms of probability versus payoff and avoiding the chance of catastrophic loss. That last one is the one so many of us forget. When playing Russian roulette with a standard six shot revolver, you have an 83% chance of winning. While those are fantastic odds, the 17% comes to a pretty hard conclusion. If you are making trades that appear to have a high probability of gains but one of the possible outcomes is total loss, you will eventually experience that loss. Learning to focus on the process, and not individual outcomes, increases your odds of long-term success dramatically.

Ignoring the Immediate Dollar

Thinking long term works not just in investing but in running companies. As Jeff Bezos once pointed out "If everything you do needs to work on a three-year time horizon, then you're competing against a lot of people. But if you're willing to invest on a seven-year time horizon, you're now competing against a fraction of those people, because very few companies are willing to do that." This article makes the case that corporate spinoffs often energize and refocus managers on the long-term success of the new company and should continue to be a source of long-term stock market profits. I agree, and spinoffs are one of the special situations I comb the market for on a regular basis.

Disruption Ahead

This is a nice discussion of the industries that could face serious disruption and change in the years ahead. Disruption often creates opportunity and the industries discussed may well be fertile hunting ground in the years ahead.

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To the Max,



Tim Melvin

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