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| Monday Millionaire Briefing: This is What Will Drive the Market Next Quarter...
By D.R. Barton, Jr.
Dear 10-Minute Millionaire Reader,
- Good news about China manufacturing has the market hopping this morning. You may recall that in March, we got negative manufacturing news out of the EU, the U.S., and China on consecutive days, sending the market down on global economic growth worries. This morning the private survey known as the Caixin/Markit Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) showed unexpected strength in China's massive manufacturing sector. Last month, the reading came in at 49.9 and was broadly seen as a major negative since a reading below 50 is considered a contracting reading (or negative growth). This month, analysts expected an unchanged reading of 49.9, or barely negative growth. So when the actual number came in at 50.8 for March, surprisingly showing moderate growth, traders and investors were encouraged and have pushed prices higher since the announcement.
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- Earnings in general: Earnings reporting season has ended (though as we see below, a few important ones are still to come in). The reporting period that just ended (companies reporting their 2018 4th quarter results) was surprisingly strong. That is a big reason the market has had such a big up quarter. This coming earnings season (starting in mid-April) will be very important. It will be the first quarter where the year-over-year (YoY) earnings will be comparing two post tax-cut results. And before things kick off, analysts are estimating a decline in YoY earnings of -3.9%. Any improvement on this number would be seen as a market positive. Of course, the opposite is true if earnings come in even weaker than expected. I expect the ebb and flow of earnings to be a big driver of overall market price movement in the upcoming quarter as traders and investors discern whether we'll get the expected slowdown or not. With that said, earnings continue to trickle in...
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Great trading and God bless you,
D.R. Barton, Jr.
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