2019年7月1日星期一

Dinner with America’s 0.01%

Bill Bonner’s Diary

Dinner With America’s 0.01%

By Bill Bonner, Chairman, Bonner & Partners

Bill Bonner

YOUGHAL, IRELAND – One of the advantages of having some money is that you get to observe others who have it. Up close, without being arrested.

You see the rich in their native habitat. You learn their lingo. You observe their customs.

It was in that spirit of anthropological curiosity that we joined a group of some 300 wealthy Americans at the Palace of Versailles in Paris on Friday night.

We’ll come back to that in a minute…

New Digs

The good news today is that we are no longer homeless. We moved into our new digs in Youghal on Saturday.

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Bill’s “new digs” in Ireland

The house is far from finished. So we live with wires dangling, sinks tipping over, and no kitchen… but at least we don’t have to check out by noon!

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Bill’s house in Youghal is ready for occupants

Noble Entry

Back to Versailles…

What a place! Over the top. Spectacular.

Our visit began with a noble entry into the palace. Military standards unfurled on either side of us… held by staunch veterans of Dien Bien Phu and Algiers.

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Bill is greeted at Versailles

Then, we crossed a red carpet to arrive in the Halle d’Entrée, where on the wall was the large plaque commemorating the generosity of the Rockefeller family.

Thereafter, our group – men in tuxedos, wilting in the 90-degree heat, their faces red, with beads of perspiration on their foreheads… women in their gowns, some with advanced cases of décolletage – was escorted on a private tour of the great rooms.

We passed through rooms used by Louis XIV and his entourage… the boudoir of Marie Thérèse… Louis’ own bedroom and antechamber… the famous Hall of Mirrors… and finally, the Hall of Battles.

There, amidst huge paintings of death and dying… at Austerlitz, Bouvines, and Fontenoy… we dined in a peaceful splendor usually reserved for heads of state.

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Bill dines in the Hall of Battles

Of course, the palace is magnificent. But we will return to it in a minute.

Old Money

The people we were with were undoubtedly on the roster of America’s 1%… perhaps even the 0.01%. But this was the antiqua pecunia wing of the moneyed set, not the Donald J. Trump wing.

By their women shall ye know them. At a gathering of the Trumpian men, their wives – like their suits and their automobiles – tend to be foreign, sleek, and new.

These women were different. More like Barbara Bush than Melania Trump, some were elegant, even stunningly beautiful. But they were not new.

For this set, life is about holding on to what you’ve got. This wing of the .01% has money so old that most have forgotten how it was made.

David Rockefeller Jr. – who was honored with a special award on Friday – showed no signs of oil stains on his tuxedo. Nor did the others smell of the slaughterhouses, coal mines, or retail outlets where their fathers and grandfathers had sweated out their fortunes.

These were not people who knew how to make money. They knew something just as valuable – how to get rid of it.

Many collected art and antiques. They endowed museums. One of the men at our table had created not one, but two, new museums – one in Miami, the other in San Francisco.

They were also very worldly people, with apartments in Washington, but also in Paris or Venice. And they supported good works all over the world.

Good Works

One of those good works was the building in which we dined. When World War II concluded, the Rockefellers wrote a letter to ask the French if perhaps they would like a little help restoring the place where the Treaty of Versailles had been signed. Yes, they answered politely, they would be delighted.

And so, the Americans, well stocked with dollars but short on grandiose culture of their own, rolled up their sleeves, got to work, and helped to make Versailles what it is today.

“Oh… but that was a different era,” said a companion. “You don’t see that can-do, open, optimistic attitude any more. Now, Americans want to build walls…”

She gave a knowing nod as she pronounced these words, almost a wink; there was not a MAGA cap in sight.

The woman wore a diamond fleur-de-lys brooch. She was concentration-camp thin… and looked as though she might be on the board of the Guggenheim.

These were heirs not just to the fortunes of America’s great economic triumph, but to its attitudes and ideas as well.

They believed in learning foreign languages, participating in the world of high culture, and lifting up its low federales with the example of America’s democracy, its Constitution, its universal values, and its market-set prices.

Peacock Display

The occasion was the 100th anniversary of the signing of the Treaty of Versailles, which took place in the Hall of Mirrors on June 28, 1919. The signing of the treaty marked the end of the first World War.

The anniversary was generally ignored by the public. But here, a few speakers gamely tried to make it sound like a great achievement.

“We just want to say,” said a French voice, one of several after-dinner speakers, “that we are grateful to you Americans… You sent 2 million soldiers to help us end that dreadful war and protect democracy. And then, you helped us restore this remarkable, lovely place. Thank you.”

It was a nice evening. No one wanted to spoil it with the truth.

Versailles is monumental, but it is not lovely. Almost ugly, it is a peacock display of power, not taste. And it impoverished the French, isolated the aristocracy, galled the commoners, and incited the French Revolution.

The mobs and the guillotine caused the rich to flee to Germany and England, where they set about conspiring with the locals to invade their homeland to retake their properties and power.

And it was the threat of foreign invasion that led, as autumn to winter, to the Napoleonic Wars… leaving France broken, bloodied, and occupied by British and Prussian troops.

Catastrophic Consequences

Nor did anyone want to chip the crystal mood by recalling that the Great War was a disastrous affair for all the participants… And that when U.S. president Woodrow Wilson sent U.S. troops, he made probably the single biggest blunder of American history… prolonging the war by two years and adding millions in casualties.

The treaty that ended the war was as blockheaded as the war itself. Rather than simply ratify the armistice and let people get on with their lives, the French and British insisted on revenge. Wilson, meanwhile, wanted the glory of being Salvator Mundi.

And the American banks, who had lent millions to keep the war going, wanted to be repaid. The solution they came up with was huge war reparations imposed on Germany, which had catastrophic consequences for everyone. The money flowing into the U.S. caused the Roaring Twenties… which led to the Crash of 1929… which led to the Great Depression.

In Europe, the Germans – on the brink of starvation – sent their gold to Paris and London… and thence to New York, leaving them with nothing but fake money – stimulus! – at home.

This led to the Weimar Hyperinflation… to the rise of Hitler… and to more fireworks.

Other than that… it was a fine event, enjoyed by all.

Regards,

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Bill

Editor’s Note: For a firsthand look at Versailles, go right here.

POSTCARDS FROM THE FRINGE: A STOWAWAY IN MAZATLÁN

By Tom Dyson

Tom Dyson

Today, I’d like to continue the story of how I came to work with Bill and Dan Denning. If you missed the first three installments, catch up here, here, and here.

The train rolled into Mazatlán’s main marshalling yard, and the engineer uncoupled the locomotive. Time for me to find a new ride.

I climbed down the side of the gondola, picked my way over three strings of parked railcars hemming me in, and made my way out of the freight yard.

I walked toward the ocean. A large ferry was docked at a quay. Eighteen-wheelers were lining up on the wharf. They were loading them one by one onto the top deck of the ferry with a pneumatic elevator built into the ass of the boat.

I went over to the little office and poked my head in the door. “Where’s the ferry going?” I asked.

“San Lucas.”

“What time?”

“Tonight.”

“Can I get a ride?”

“Cargo only,” he said.

I walked to the wharf. A port official was standing by the loading ramp. “Puedo pasar?” I asked.

“Prohibido.”

I retreated to some nearby shade to consider my options. Then, as if a mystical force was intervening on my behalf, the guard lit a cigarette, walked off the quay, and disappeared!

I picked up my bag and walked up the ramp, expecting – with each footstep – to hear shouting behind me. There wasn’t any. I didn’t dare look around.

On the boat, I climbed a staircase to the second deck. There was a 20-foot-high hollow metal column shaped like the tailfin of an airplane at the back of the boat, among a tangle of marine-grade ropes and chains. There was an oval-shaped cut-out in one of its sides.

I crawled in and wedged myself inside it – out of sight – for the rest of the afternoon.

When I saw the late afternoon sunlight suddenly pour in through the oval and paint a slow arc across the floor, I knew we’d left port.

To be continued…

In the meantime, let’s check in on the Dow-to-Gold ratio and the progress of our trade. For a refresher, go here.

I don’t want to own gold. It’s an awkward asset to own, and it doesn’t pay any interest. (But I found a satisfying way to buy it. I’ll share this story another time, although I doubt the opportunity is still available.)

I’d rather be a “buy and hold” investor of great companies that raise dividends year after year.

But such is the nature of the stock market that it swings between “cheap” and “expensive” in great multi-decade waves. And “expensive” is always followed by an 80% or more devaluation in the Dow (in terms of gold).

It’s been this way for a century. First, from 1929 to 1934. Then, from 1965 to 1979. And now, from 1999 to present.

I’m going to wait patiently for the devaluation to run its course. Remember, Bill and I expect the Dow-to-Gold ratio to fall below five. This is the “rendezvous with destiny” Bill has mentioned. At writing, the ratio stands at 19.07.

Chart

When the ratio falls below five, I will sell our gold and invest it ALL in stocks, where it will stay – I hope – generating bigger and bigger dividends until long after I am dead.

– Tom Dyson

P.S. The travels continue…

We’re having the best time, living in these awesome homestays where they feed us the BEST home-cooked vegetarian food.

We have always loved Indian food, so we’re in food heaven. And the kids are eating ALL of it, which makes Kate and I even happier.

We’re just chilling. Mainly because it’s hot and rainy, and we’re in deep, rural India during off-season. But this is good for our health, too.

We spend our days reading, resting, watching movies together, and taking long walks down the narrow country lanes. When the kids do their schoolwork, I write my journals.

This is the lane leading to our cottage…

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For the first time in my life, I feel absolutely no stress. I realize I’ve been looking for this for years. Now I’ve found it.

Of course, it’s got nothing to do with the home-cooked food or the country lanes. As they say, “Gold is wherever you find it.” It’s being with my family – the four people I love most in the world – without any intrusions or distractions.

Next, we go to live on a self-sustainable farm/permaculture project where there’s no electricity! Really looking forward to that. We’ll be volunteering there in exchange for our room and board… and no doubt eating more freshly prepared vegan food harvested straight from the garden.

[NOTE: We will be completely cut off from all communication channels – including email – until we return to the electric grid on Monday, July 8.]

After that, we’ve got a string of mini-adventures to look forward to, including staying in two lovingly preserved, vintage colonial-era hotels… and some beach time in Goa.

In August, we’re off to Thailand and Southeast Asia for six weeks to have another epic adventure!

FEATURED READS

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The Spenders Are Turning Into Savers
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MAILBAG

Today, a dear reader recommends some sights in Paris to your editor… while pointing the finger at a former chair of the Federal Reserve for getting America hooked on counterfeit money

Trianon Palace has great food and is only 40 miles away. You can walk to the Hall of Mirrors at the Palace of Versailles from my former room in Trianon. I could see sheep grazing on the lawn through the window in the morning. Have a great time. It’s one of my favorite hotels.

By the way, we got hooked by the petty, self-serving narcissist Alan Greenspan, who knew zip about stocks and the market. He repeatedly had flawed perceptions and wrong timing. He was before Ben Bernanke, who was magnitudes more knowledgeable. But I think the usefulness of the Fed has come to an end. Best wishes and keep in touch.

– William G.

Meanwhile, another dear reader offers his gloomy prediction for the future…

Mr. Bonner, I read your emails every day and love them, and I respect you immensely. I agree with you that lifespan is going to increase substantially. But I am 79 years old, and I fear for my children, grandchildren, and their children. I believe that unless something extremely dramatic happens, there will be more and more poverty, and the majority of people will not be able to afford health care. We are bankrupt as a nation now, but the world continues to ignore this, due to our being the reserve currency.

Obviously, the $160 trillion in debt, including unfunded liabilities, will likely never be repaid – especially as there is no evidence anywhere that the government, including all senators and congressmen, are willing to face the music.

We are a bankrupt society and nation right now, but basically, the majority of people are ignorant of this. Or they believe that something great will come down the pike, like a new technology that will create millions and millions of new, decent-paying jobs. Personally, I believe that technology reduces the number of net jobs, just as it has, dramatically so, in the auto assembly lines.

So I have a question. Do we need a long, terrible depression, or do you think that debt forgiveness across the board – student loans, auto loans, credit cards, unfunded pensions, liabilities, national debt, etc. – is possible?

– Jack R.

And finally, a dear reader shares his enjoyment of Tom’s tales of traveling abroad with his family

Tom, it’s great to hear from you again. You sat at our table at the Alliance conference in Playa Del Carmen in 2008 (I think). I enjoyed your stories of hopping freight cars, etc. Mostly, I was impressed with your outlook on life. I joined the Palm Beach Letter because of you, and I was sorry when you left. I look forward to reading about your journeys and your thoughts on the markets as we move along. Best wishes always.

– Fred W.

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And now, you can watch a replay of Teeka’s exclusive event right here.

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