| The Electromagnetic Spectrum Lives On As Nobel laureate physicist Richard Feynman observed, James Clerk Maxwell's discovery of the unity of the electromagnetic spectrum, governed by the speed of light, was the most important event of the mid-19th century, leaving the US civil war of the same year as "a parochial footnote by comparison." Today, in the form of 5G wireless, Maxwell's rainbow of frequencies continues to reanimate the global economy. With calls using low definition voice and taking some three kilohertz apiece, mobile wireless today is mostly confined to some 600 MHz of frequencies. That's roughly 200,000 calls per cell. These bands are mostly in the low (sub gigahertz) and mid-frequency bands. But as Maxwell proved, frequencies are infinite and cornucopian in their uses. 5G is opening up what my former colleague Bret Swanson of AEI calls a "spectrum big-bang." Wireless spectrum, he says, could grow by a factor of 10 during the next decade. Governments still want to control the spectrum, as if it were as scarce as "beachfront property" and engineers could not figure out how to use it effectively without the guidance of Federal commissioners and politicians. They auction it off to the most powerful companies for exclusive use, collecting tolls on the air. And then they harass and regulate the companies as potential monopolists of air. A week ago, I returned from Israel, where the use of the electromagnetic spectrum thrives. For almost two decades I have been following several companies pursuing the grail of software defined or "cognitive" radios that can range across the spectrum and find empty stretches to use. Look Ma, no need for auctions or regimented air. I have predicted the steady movement of data calls and communications from licensed to unlicensed spectrum, the ISM bands. Originally created for industrial scientific and medical uses, the ISM bands now are crucial for everyone's internet access. Sure enough, this year more than half of all calls are completed using Wi-Fi and other unlicensed spectrum. Today's Prophecy Over the next several years this movement will accelerate and auctions will be obsolete. 5G will as much as double, by more than a gigahertz, the amount of bandwidth currently available in the unlicensed bands of spectrum. Communications will migrate away from the toll lanes into EZ pass realms of relatively unregulated carriers. Three of my Israeli spectrum companies — ASOCS, Celeno, and Camaro — appeared in The Israel Test and other of my writings. During my September trip, I learned that experience had not finally favored Camaro's once promising plan for battlefield deployments that see through walls. Battlefields turn out to be tough for delicate spectrum manipulations. But still prospering are ASOCS with its private 5G campus and corporate systems and Celeno with its programmable radio and radar technologies for homes and businesses. Celeno is part of the Medved portfolio. Other companies in it zap cancer tumors without damage to surrounding tissue, cure Parkinson's disease, revolutionize chemistry, massively improve weather prediction, enable self-driving automobiles, identify you reliably by your movements, and accomplish a dozen other miracles. Between the time-prices that signal huge continuing advances in the world economy and the upside surprise of new Israeli (and Chinese) companies and the advance of unlicensed 5G communications, I believe the global economy is ready for huge upward expansion. Blown away will be the burdens of debt and hypertrophied finance. During the next year, we will have breakthroughs against cancer and Parkinson's. We will have a new architecture for internet security. We will have a proliferation of progress in blockchain and their applications. Around the world, central banks will vie with corporations and startups in launching new forms of digital money and Internet security based on blockchains. We will come to grasp that the technological revolutions of the last three decades are real and permanent and convergent in the COSM. They have moved the human endeavor to a new level of productivity and accomplishment. Based on spurious and misleading data, the trade wars, monetary conflicts, climate delusions, and debt disasters that dominate the media and politics will shrink to relative insignificance. That will be the upside surprise of 2020. Meet Me at the COSM Earlier, I mentioned the COSM Technology Summit. We are pleased to offer a large discount to the October 23-25 COSM Technology Summit to my Daily Prophecy readers. Just use the code GDP19 when registering! You can register by clicking here. I hope you can join me and some of the great minds of our day in this unique and intimate gathering to explore the coming technology upheaval and convergence. Especially by exploring what it all means for technology companies, the development of new products and services, business and personal investments, US global competiveness, and impacts on the workforce. I hope to see you there! Regards,  George Gilder Editor, Gilder's Daily Prophecy |
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