2020年1月31日星期五

A bird in the hand…

Bill Bonner’s Diary

A Bird in the Hand…

By Bill Bonner, Chairman, Bonner & Partners

Bill Bonner

DENVER, COLORADO – Golden, Colorado is home to two important institutions: the Coors Brewery… and the Colorado School of Mines.

One of our sons is here enjoying both of them; we came to see him yesterday.

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Golden in the morning

Three of the passengers on the plane, one Chinese, two American, were wearing face masks.

Were they afraid of getting the Wuhan virus? Or afraid of passing it along to others? We didn’t know. But every time someone coughed or sneezed, we got nervous.

Adventure Bargains

If you want to take an adventure vacation at a bargain price, it’s time to head east. According to our sources, hotels, airlines, and restaurants in China – all are being marked down fast.

A round-trip from New York to Beijing, normally about $2,500, is now on sale for $495. The malls are quiet. Hotels are said to be emptying out. Restaurants are desperate for customers.

Tourists are leaving the country. But so are the Chinese, leading to a further syndrome, a “surge in anti-Chinese racism.” At least that’s the word from News.com in Australia, which reports that the Wuhan virus…

…inflame[s] the existing prejudices within the community,” said ANU researcher Yun Jiang, coeditor of the China Neican policy newsletter.

“So now people who perhaps have existing prejudice suddenly have an excuse to act out with racist behaviour and remarks.”

In South Korea, a number of businesses are refusing to serve Chinese customers, placing signs in windows reading, “No Chinese allowed.”

Apocalypse Now?

“Where the hell does this lead?” we asked a friend, channeling Donald J. Trump and curious about the coronavirus.

“You never know,” was the safe reply. “I mean, the Spanish Flu, after WWI, wiped out as many as 100 million people all over the world. If that happened today, the death toll might be 500 million. Who knows?

“We’re better at treating diseases. But viruses move fast. And sometimes, there just aren’t any good ways of treating them. We have antibiotics against bacterial infections. We still can’t do much against viruses. In the Middle Ages, the Septicemic plague killed almost everybody who got it. And there’s still no treatment.

“The Spanish Flu killed the healthiest people. Young people. With good immune systems. The virus captured their immune systems and turned them against their hosts.

“Today, we have much more developed public health systems. And many more ways of controlling people. In some airports, already, you have to walk through a heat detector, like a metal detector, but it tells when you have a fever. Then, they take you aside for an examination.

“And now, the government can fight a virus as if it were a war. It can lock down airports, cities, states… close borders… and outlaw public gatherings. Elections could be postponed. Gas stations could be closed to prevent travel. I’m not saying they will do that. But they could. And if the virus were dangerous enough, a lock-down would be supported by most people.

“But people can’t stay locked down for long. They need food. So, the shelves need to be stocked. And people need to go to the supermarket. So, they need gas… and the delivery trucks need to roll.

“That’s why investors are nervous. Or, they should be. Nobody knows whether this virus can be contained. It is said to kill three out of 100 people who get it. So, if 100 million Americans got the disease, there would be 3 million dead. Not a big deal in terms of the survival of the race. But it could mean a big hit to sales and profits.”

W.W.F.D.

Falling sales, falling profits? What would the Federal Reserve do? Only one thing – inflate!

But as we’ve been exploring this week, robberies don’t always go as planned. You map out a non-violent heist… and a quick getaway… and end up with dead bodies and hostages. Stuff happens.

Inflation is always and everywhere a rip-off. And it often spins wildly out of control.

Like von Havenstein, you plan on a little inflation to help you through an emergency. The next thing you know, you’re printing 500 quintillion German marks.

How does that happen? Little by little. And then, all of a sudden.

On the Loose

A bird in the hand is worth more than a bird in the bush. In a plague, it may be worth more than two birds in the bush (an interest rate of 100%). Why? Because the odds of getting your money back go down fast.

Consumers also get a little edgy, too.

The Fed said on Wednesday that it would provide all the cash that consumers, businesses, and investors need. But in a real inflation, the amount of cash needed is infinite.

Prices rise. Then, consumers need more money to stay in the same place. The feds print more. And prices rise more.

At any point, the current level of prices depends on the current level of inflation. Stop inflating (adding to the money supply)… and the system collapses.

The world currently has more than $16 trillion in negative-interest debt. The U.S. stock market is near an all-time high, but approximately 14% of the companies, including some of the biggest, are “zombies” – meaning they don’t earn enough to cover the interest on their debt.

The U.S. government can’t cover its expenses, either; the Fed prints up a trillion dollars a year to help.

And, oh yes, a killer virus is on the loose.

We don’t know what will happen, but we doubt a face mask will save us.

Regards,

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Bill

P.S. Stay tuned tomorrow and Sunday…

Your editor, along with Bonner-Denning Letter coauthor Dan Denning, compiled a list of 13 things to do before the complete collapse of American civilization…

Like what you’re reading? Send your thoughts to feedback@bonnerandpartners.com.

MAILBAG

Dear Readers enjoyed an excerpt from Bill’s latest book, A Modest Theory of Civilization: Win-Win or Lose

What a terrific yet sober reminder of just how “good” we really have it now. As a retired corporate finance executive barely scraping by, it is very interesting to hear more about this country’s history and recall the “good ole days.”

While only a small child in the ’50s of middle-class parents, I was old enough to be aware of my family’s economic status and recall vividly the seemingly abrupt decline of that status through the ’60s and ’70s. As I got older, I had it burned into my brain by my father that the pathway to success and attainment of the “American Dream,” led through a college education coupled with a good-paying corporate job.

Sadly, as I sit here and reflect, though my father’s advice was sound for the time, little did I know that corporate greed and the Deep State’s incessant drive for self-gratification would all but destroy that “dream.”

And yes, while reader Allan C.’s “doom and gloom” feedback – that he regrets starting off his “day reading the demise of the world as we know it” – may be spot-on, I think it is imperative that someone remind us that we have been kidding ourselves… The current state of our country, with almost a 30,000 Dow, is nothing more than a concocted illusion meant to distract us from the sobering reality that the United States, like most civilizations in history, will ultimately come to an untimely death if we do not learn the lessons of the past!

Please keep spouting the doom and gloom, so to speak, and keep reminding us that “all that glitters is not gold,” and unless we wake up soon, our economy and our democracy will go the way of the ancients and cease to exist! Thanks for the history lesson and sound reflection on reality!

– Jerry F.

I’m very surprised by how many readers that have been with you for a while now still don’t get it. The easiest way I have told my son about debt is that every dollar of debt is placed against one dollar of future earnings. Basically, debt is placed upon the next generation of workers (all of the rest of the 90%+) who will have to pay (real estate, accounts, etc.)…

– Dwayne C.

Thanks for your daily musings – love them! Keep trying to “connect the dots.”

– Andy L.

Is the Diary a sound reflection of reality for you, as it is for Jerry? What other “lessons of the past” does America need to learn? Write us at feedback@bonnerandpartners.com.

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Bonner & Partners
55 NE 5th Avenue, Delray Beach, FL 33483
www.bonnerandpartners.com

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