| By Bill Bonner Wednesday, July 29, 2020 – Week 20 of the Quarantine SAN MARTIN, ARGENTINA – Here’s a Bloomberg headline from yesterday: “As Gold Smashes Records, Forecasters Ask Whether Peak Is Near” You have to wonder: Who are these forecasters? Where have they been? Do they have any idea what is going on? Gold has its nose in the air. Like a deer in a dry forest, it smells the smoke. It knows it’s time to get out of town. On Monday, the Republicans threw another $1 trillion worth of tinder on the fire. The so-called HEALS Act would bring the deficit for the calendar year (the feds operate on a different “fiscal” year) to $5 trillion – or about 25% of GDP. To spell it out: More spending = More deficits = More fake-money printing. And more fake money pushes up the price of real money – gold. As long as the money-printing continues, in other words, gold will continue to rise. | Recommended Link | | 1-Minute Poll: Is America Spiraling Out of Control? According to a recent Wall Street Journal poll, 80% of U.S. voters believe “America is Spiraling Out of Control.” We want to know what YOU think… Do YOU think America is spiraling out of control? Click on your answer below: Casting your vote will take you to a new video that reveals WHY everything’s so upside-down in America. | | | -- | Contraction Ahead But wait… maybe the trend is over. Maybe the Federal Reserve has turned off the printing presses. And now, with the last of the dry wood ablaze, gold can peak out as the fire settles into warm coals. Or not… Here’s another Bloomberg headline to give you a clue: U.S. Is About to Unveil the Ugliest GDP Report Ever Recorded. Thursday’s report forecast to show annualized 35% contraction. Let’s see… Less GDP growth = Lower tax receipts = More stimulus measures = Bigger deficits = More money printing… You can see where this leads as well as we can. Tom’s Portfolio Back in May, our colleague Tom Dyson revealed his “Portfolio.” It is designed to take advantage of what he sees as an inevitable trend: gold up, stocks down. The portfolio is simple enough: It’s only been just over two months, but so far, so good. Gold is up 11.5%... silver is up 34.8%... gold royalties are up 12.5%... and gold optionality plays are up 57%. [Readers who signed up for Tom’s Portfolio can view the portfolio details here. To sign up for Tom’s Portfolio, click here.] "Tech Royalties" could be the answer to a fruitful retirement. False Hope As for us, we recommended a shift to gold twenty years ago. At the time, the price was about $280 an ounce. Our view of the money world back then was amateurish; we hadn’t yet figured out how the fake money system works. All we knew was that gold was way down. And stocks were way up. We guessed that both would regress to the mean in time. The stock market represents hope for the future. Stock investors are said to “look ahead” to the flush stream of earnings that companies are likely to produce. That was especially true of the Nasdaq – the benchmark tech industry stock market index – at the turn of the century. Gold, on the other hand, is more of a reminder of the past… a souvenir of all the plans and projects that never paid out as expected. Stocks are an indicator of giddy greed. Gold is a measure of sober fear. One is hope. The other is reality. And with the Dow selling for more than 40 ounces of gold in 1999, the two were farther apart than ever before. Looking back, it is now obvious that hope had had too many martinis. The U.S. was at the peak of its power and prestige – practically unchallenged. No war against terror. No mortgage finance crisis. No war against a virus. No shutdowns. No bailouts. The federal government was running surpluses. And the national debt was going down. All we saw was upside. And to make the future seem even more fetching, a new technology – the internet – was offering dizzy dreams of avarice. “Dot-coms” were revolutionizing our economy and the way we lived… or so it appeared. And the Nasdaq was exploding to new highs almost every day. Dumb Luck Still, without knowing anything about the future, it seemed likely that hope and reality would come closer together. And by dumb luck, our timing was good. After hitting a high just shy of 42 ounces of gold for the Dow in mid-1999, stocks began to slide… and gold started going up. "Pressure Point" Technique Could Double Your Money in 30 Days. All you had to do was buy gold and sit tight. Today, you’d have multiplied your money seven times (a 600% increase) in dollar terms. By comparison, the Dow averaged around 10,800 in the year 2000. Now, it’s at 26,500… an increase of just under 150%. Over the last two decades, in other words, gold outperformed stocks by about 450%. Foolish Moves And now? The U.S. has been slipping for the last 20 years. A foolish “war” against terror cost $7 trillion. And after the dot-com bubble blew up in 2000, ultra-low interest rates caused another bubble in 2007, this time in real estate. Then, the Wall Street bailout fouled the economy even more… with $25 trillion in new debt piled onto households, businesses, and the government. But the foulest and most foolish moves came just a few months ago. In a coronavirus-induced panic, the feds shut down the whole U.S. economy… and then began printing money on a scale never before seen in U.S. history. Now, they are committed not only to bailing out their campaign donors and cronies on Wall Street… but Main Street, too. They broke it; now they own it! | Recommended Link | | 2-Minute "MICRO-IPO" Stocks Deliver FAST One-Day Gains It takes 2 minutes to place a "MICRO-IPO" trade… And this ignored subsector of tiny tech stocks can hammer out one-day winners: -
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Adaptive, 100% in a day… Why wait months or years to have a chance at doubling your money? Especially when you can get positioned in 2 minutes… | | | -- | First Act So, what do you think? Is this the end of the trend that began 20 years ago? Is this the “bottom” for the U.S. economy… and the peak in the yellow metal? Will the U.S. reclaim its Numero Uno status… while gold crawls back into its mines and storage vaults, like it did after 1980, and rests for another 20 or 40 years? Or is this just the beginning… the first act in a show that will last for years more? Are there whole forests yet to light up… followed by houses, factories, furniture, books… and ballot boxes? Yes, Dear Reader, we don’t know any more about the future than you do. But we’ve learned something over the last 20 years: The fake money system is corrupt, counterproductive, and self-destructive. And while we are “always in doubt”… there seems to be more than an even-odds chance that the trends now in motion will stay in motion… …until the whole shebang – the economy, politics, and the social system, too – goes up in flames. As for the peak in gold… it is probably still far ahead. Stay tuned… Regards, Bill
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FEATURED READS What You Can Expect From Republicans’ Next COVID-19 Proposal
On Monday, Senate Republicans released details of their next COVID-19 relief bill, named the “HEALS Act.” Here’s what the trillion-dollar proposal addresses... Gold’s Bull Run Is Far From Over
Casey Research geologist Dave Forest has been following gold’s historic rise during the coronavirus pandemic. But despite the metal reaching new all-time highs, Dave believes it is just in the first innings of this bull market. Find out his best suggestion to start – or increase – your gold allocation to take advantage of the coming bull run... MAILBAG Earlier this week, dear readers expressed concern for Elizabeth’s safety and suggested she and Bill move back to the U.S. But when Bill asked Elizabeth where she would rather be, she replied that they are safer in the Calchaquí Valley. Several dear readers agree... You and Elizabeth are definitely correct – the USA is probably the worst country on the face of the Earth, as well as being the furthest beyond bankrupt that I can think of. The last time we “visited” the USA was maybe 15-16 years ago, when a flight home was diverted to Detroit because of a 4-foot snowfall in Toronto. We were stuck in Detroit for three to four hours before a bus finally transported us home. The last time we visited the USA “voluntarily” – must have been at least 25 years ago – was when a cruise ship we were on stopped in Alaska for a day or so. On the other hand, we have met many very nice and intelligent Americans on various trips, the last ones tragically being an incredibly nice couple that returned home to New York and died from COVID-19 shortly after our cruise ended. – Doug C. Since you’re in exile and not able to enjoy COVID-19, USA style, in person, allow me to report conversations my wife and I have had recently. We’re both 70+ and most of our friends are boomers, while some are even older. Our friends tend to be better educated and sufficiently affluent to not have to sell furniture to buy food. Various personal issues required us to remain stranded at our Scottsdale home until July 4, when we returned to Newport Beach, CA, which is our social base of friends. We've been anxious to reconnect, but always in a socially appropriate manner, such as patio cocktails, outdoor dining, no hugs, etc. Our friends, like us, try to avoid doing stupid stuff and take prudent, reasonably safe steps to avoid infection. So we've been able to catch up. Practically every couple (or widow) we’ve socialized with has said – completely unprompted – something to the effect of, “I’m glad I’m as old as I am because this country is heading in the wrong direction. I feel sorry for my kids/grandkids. I’m glad I won’t be around when the sh*t hits the fan.” I guess us old farts can no longer whine about getting old or fantasize about being young again. Up until now, I’d have thought this to be the norm. You will be returning to a different country. The best thing that Trump or Biden could do to slow down this runaway train is to lay down on the tracks in front of it. I enjoy your column. I don’t know how you make the time to write it, but appreciate that you do. – Peter. S. Another dear reader suggests we are more at risk from our lifestyle choices than from COVID-19... I have read your daily commentary for a long time, and I look forward to reading you while having my coffee in the morning. I like your logic, and mostly agree with what you write, so I thought I would send you an encouragement to continue. Don’t let the nasty commenters discourage you. I, too, have run the COVID numbers a few times and cannot understand the complete paranoia of people. I live in Canada. Our area health unit, which covers about 150,000 people, stated the other day that we have not had a COVID patient in our hospital since June 1. Yet yesterday, the biggest city, in which the hospital is located, has just voted for mandatory masks in indoor public accessible buildings. They just can’t let go of their fear. My wife and I are in our mid-sixties. Almost everyone we know has some sort of serious health issue related to their poor lifestyle choices. I listen to people who are so afraid of COVID, but I notice that they continue to practice a lifestyle that includes excessive eating, eating unhealthy, fatty, or sugary foods, smoking and drinking alcohol in excess, and so on. Yet they refuse to recognize that they are killing themselves slowly, and that’s why they are sickly. Will people get back to reality? – Al J. And several readers wrote in to express their gratitude for Bill’s “rapier wit” and Elizabeth’s “tolerance and patience”… Bill, I have been following your missives for many years. Being of your vintage, I find you always enlightening and intriguing. I have been enriched through your gift of communication. And I never cease to be amazed at my own naiveté about how the “system” continues to pull the wool over our eyes time and time again. You connect the dots very well, notwithstanding the fact that some of us can’t internalize it fast enough. Nonetheless, as a long-time reader, thank you for your relentless attempt to guide us. And Elizabeth for her tolerance and patience. – Mike B. You, Señor (and benefactor to the valley), make my day. Your rapier wit is sharpest when you joust with dear readers, some of them who – dare I say it? – are morons. Jeez. Come back to the U.S. and make a difference. I loved your responses. And you really showed the readers who tried to lambast you how uninformed and WRONG they were. Thanks for your work and the connecting of the dots. I am so glad you and Elizabeth have graced this world with your spirits and presence. May the Good Lord continue to bless and keep you safe and in good humor. – Bill S. Should Bill and Elizabeth stay where they are? Do our lifestyle choices put us more at risk than COVID-19? Write us at feedback@rogueeconomics.com. IN CASE YOU MISSED IT… URGENT 40-SECOND PHONE MESSAGE FROM MILLIONAIRE TECH INVESTOR Apologies if this seems abrupt… But Millionaire Angel Investor, Jeff Brown, urgently needs to talk to you. In one day, a tiny biotech company could start to soar up to 1,000%… and he’s agreed to film a first-ever Biotech Masterclass. He recorded a 40-second phone message that explains more details. CLICK HERE TO LISTEN. 
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