2021年5月17日星期一

Path to Profits: Commodities Boom Will Cost You at the Dealership

CASEY DAILY DISPATCH - Casey Research

Hey all, Dave here, and welcome to Path to Profits.

There’s a lot of exciting stuff going on in geotech, strategic materials, finance, and the companies that drive those trends…

You see, no one covers this space like we do. So every week, I’ll highlight the top hotspots gaining momentum in the media.

It’s how we find our best money-making opportunities, just ripe for big gains.

Check out this week’s top hotspots below to find out which trends are gaining traction…

This Week's Top Hotspots

➤ Hoarding of rare earth metals spread to the Western world.
The U.K. government is looking at creating a stockpile of the key tech metals, according to a report from The Telegraph. China has already created national stores of major battery metals like cobalt, pushing prices higher.

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➤ The world's top copper nation imposed a massive mining tax.
Legislators in Chile approved a bill to tax mining companies at rates of up to 75%. Mining industry officials called the tax “almost expropriatory” and said it will threaten production.

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➤ China slashed copper production to clear the air.
The country’s 15 largest smelters agreed to cut production by nearly 9% this coming year to reduce carbon emissions. The reduction comes even as copper prices hit record highs globally this month.

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➤ Republicans tried to save coal country… by fast-tracking tech metals.
A new bill would allow speedy permitting of coal mines that switch to producing rare earths metals. Coal has long been noted as a potential source of rare earths.

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➤ The commodities boom is going to cost you at the car dealer.
Estimates from JPMorgan Chase show the cost of a new automobile will rise 8.3% due to climbing metals prices. Metals that go into car manufacturing surged 83% on the year up to March.

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Dave’s note: If you missed it last week, I introduced you to Imre Gams, one of the brightest trading minds within Casey Research’s analysis squad.

Imre reached out to me with a message… his unique trading system shows commodities are about to enter an explosive phase.

I’ve reviewed his work, and it puts into numbers all the things my global travels have told me about the breaking bull market in hard assets. I asked Imre to share all the details in an exclusive alert, only for Path to Profits readers.

Path to Profits Spotlight: This Hot Market Still Has Room to Run

By Imre Gams, analyst, Casey Research

Caterpillar (CAT) is the world’s leading manufacturer of construction and mining equipment.

Those sectors are on fire right now: copper and iron ore just hit record high prices, lumber is at all-time highs, and precious metals like palladium topped $3,000 per ounce for the first time ever.

CAT supplies all those soaring businesses. It’s a hot stock at the moment.

A crucial mistake I see investors make over and over again is that they avoid hot markets like this. (This isn’t always a mistake. If a penny stock explodes during a single day, it’s usually too late to join the party. You’ll just be left holding the bag.)

On the other hand, if a proven asset like bitcoin has a big move within the day, I’d see this momentum as an opportunity. 

The difference is, a sudden jump in a penny stock’s value usually rockets that company well beyond its fundamental value. With bitcoin on the other hand, even a big 10% intra-day move wouldn’t bring it anywhere near where fundamentals say it should end up.

This brings me back to CAT. One of the key themes I’m watching is how good the market is feeling about the post-COVID global economic recovery.

CAT’s share price is a perfect way to measure the market’s optimism on a global reopening.

When economies restart, construction fires up again. Demand for CAT’s products rise. It’s a leading indicator of where we’ll be over the coming year.

Since its March 2020 low of $87.50, CAT leapt all the way to a May 2021 high of $239.33. This is an increase of more than 170%.

After that spectacular run, many investors crossed CAT off their watchlist…

The exact mistake I mentioned above.

To think that CAT doesn’t have much further upside would suggest the global economic recovery is already running out of steam.

Looking at the world around us, I don’t think this is the case. More objectively, CAT’s share price chart is telling us there’s lots more upside coming.

My trading system alerted me to a recent bull flag breakout on CAT. A bull flag is a highly reliable setup. It signals that intense buying is starting to push a stock higher.

My system pinpointed a price target of $277.40, which would be a further 17% gain. That’s a lot on a large-cap stock like CAT.

Let’s take a look.

I love these kinds of setups because momentum is a very powerful force. Like in physics, things in motion tend to stay in motion. That’s all the more true with a blue-chip stock like this. This is great news for CAT… and for global growth.

It’s also great news for our existing positions in industrial metals.

One copper stock in our International Speculator portfolio gained as much as 50% in the last six weeks. In the last three months, we also added two picks in the strategic metals sector – a space that’s historically delivered explosive gains when the global economy heats up.

Keep an eye on this…

Regards,

Imre Gams
Analyst, Casey Research

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