Everyone expected a "non-move" from Federal Reserve's last meeting.
Investors got what they wished for — the Fed held the line on interest rates. What investors also wished for — but didn't get — was clarity on what comes next.
And we're all left wondering: "When will rate cuts begin?"
"As is too often the case when it comes to 'Fed-speak,' we came away from one of the central-bank's policy meetings with a forward view that's confusing — if not downright contradictory," Quantum Edge Pro Editor Jason Bodner told me.
The Fed says the economy is healthy and expanding (which is good for stocks)… but that growth may be so strong that rates will need to stay "higher for longer" (which could be bad for stocks).
Then there's inflation.
The Fed acknowledged that pricing pressures are down, and the data shows it looks more like we have been racing down the mountain with lower inflationary levels:
And, yet, the Fed says it wants to see "more progress."
"I get the concept of transparency and not wanting to be secretive," Jason told me. "But this lack of clarity is a catalyst for the very speculation it tries to avoid. Despite the good intentions."
Here's the bad news/good news of it all.
The bad news: This lack of clarity has left most investors in a state that Jason refers to as "Post-Fed confusion."
The good news: This confusion has created the best buying window we've seen in months — with great companies trading at bargain levels. And Jason knows exactly what move to make next.
Because as he's been sharing since August, a "Big Lift" is almost here that will send stock prices higher.
It's not Nvidia, Meta Platforms, Alphabet, or Amazon. But thanks to a recent major deal, an under-the-radar stock could become the No. 1 winner of the 2023 AI boom. "This company just teamed up with one of the biggest power players in the AI industry... yet you can still buy it for just one-twelfth the price of Nvidia – the time to buy is NOW," says Marc Chaikin.
Three "Signals" That Tell Us Stocks Are Headed Higher
While "Fed-speak" feeds into "paralysis by analysis" — causing investors to make a lot of costly mistakes — in Jason's Quantum Edge services, members are already positioning themselves for higher stock prices and bigger profits. And it's the data — not some myopic crystal ball — that says so.
Indeed, Jason has three specific signals (data points) that tell us so:
Signal No. 1: Plummeting Inflation
The data is clear. Inflation has dropped from above 9% last summer to 3.7%.
Jason says it gets really interesting when you add a trendline to this bit of analysis. The Fed's "ideal" target for inflation is 2%.
And the trendline below is taking us there:
And, by the way, Jason says that 2% Fed-target inflation rate is a unicorn — it only exists as a bit of stock-market mythology.
"I ran a personal study on the consumer price index — going all the way back to its 1960 creation. The average reading over the last 63 years is 3.77%. That's nearly double the 2% goal — and it's right where inflation is now," Jason told me.
Jason says that level of inflation certainly wasn't harmful to stocks: The S&P 500 has gained more than 46,000% during that studied 63-year span. He also points out that most of the CPI surge has been powered by spiking oil and energy prices, which are notoriously volatile.
That trend of lowering inflation remains intact.
Signal No. 2: The Economy Keeps Humming Along
When the Fed launched its inflation fight, the largest fear was that its "hike-at-all-costs strategy" would send the United States into a full-blown recession.
That fear is legitimate.
But we're also seeing an economy that isn't buckling under the pressure…
In fact, it's even stronger than many have anticipated.
U.S. applications for unemployment benefits fell to the lowest level in nearly eight months, consumer spending increased the most in six months in July, and GDP growth in the first two quarters of 2023 is up compared to the same time last year:
And, most relevant to investing in stocks, companies continue to make money.
Signal No. 3: The Raging Bull Market
August and September have been choppy.
But the S&P 500 remains in a bull market — up more than 20% from their October's lows.
"The analysts and strategists who are supposed to be market seers have been wrong about this year's strength in stocks and are now playing catch up — and are boosting their year-end targets for the for the S&P 500," says Jason.
Putting it all together, Jason is confident that we are heading into the strongest slice of the year for stocks.
Just recently TradeSmith, one of the world's most cutting-edge financial tech companies, rolled out a brand-new A.I. predictive system called An-E which stands for Analytical Engine.
It just involves high-probability, high-potential stocks that exhibit these three characteristics:
Superior fundamentals that tell us the business itself is a powerhouse.
Strong technicals that reveal strong buying pressure and indicate continued momentum.
Big Money inflows — the really big money that moves stocks.
These are the cornerstones of Jason's M.A.P. system that he uses in his Quantum Edge services. And he's confident the stocks he's sharing with his members — and other quality stocks — will be much higher by the end of the year.
TradeSmith is not registered as an investment adviser and operates under the publishers' exemption of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940. The investments and strategies discussed in TradeSmith's content do not constitute personalized investment advice. Any trading or investment decisions you take are in reliance on your own analysis and judgment and not in reliance on TradeSmith. There are risks inherent in investing and past investment performance is not indicative of future results.
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