Fed Policy: The Dog That Didn't Bark
Fed Policy: The Dog That Didn't Bark | |
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| Fed Policy: The Dog That Didn't Bark By John Persinos
In the Arthur Conan Doyle short story "Silver Blaze," Sherlock Holmes solves the case of a stolen horse because a dog in the stable didn't bark during the crime. He deduces that it was an inside job, performed by somebody the dog already knew. Doing nothing is sometimes the most meaningful act of all. Today, the Federal Reserve was the dog that didn't bark. In a surprise to no one, the Fed's policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) on Wednesday left the federal funds rate unchanged at a range of 5.25% to 5.50%. The decision was unanimous. The Fed's non-action on rates cheered investors and sent stocks sharply higher. In its official statement, the FOMC noted: "Tighter financial and credit conditions for households and businesses are likely to weigh on economic activity, hiring and inflation. The extent of these effects remains uncertain. The Committee remains highly attentive to inflation risks." In Fed-speak, the word "financial" seems to be a pointed reference to the economically deleterious effects of higher long-term bond yields, which in turn help obviate the need for policy rate hikes. The Fed signaled that it's leaving the door open to hike rates at its December meeting, but there are compelling reasons to believe that the central bank will start to cut interest rates by mid-2024. Read More... |
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