2024年3月27日星期三

This 5.8% Yield SEEMS Safe...

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3M's Dividend Might Not Be as Safe as It Seems

Marc Lichtenfeld, Chief Income Strategist, The Oxford Club

Marc Lichtenfeld

It's not often in this column that we come across a dividend that looks very safe based on the Safety Net model but actually has some significant concerns.

But that's the case with 3M Company (NYSE: MMM).

Boasting over 68,000 patents, 3M makes thousands of products in 25 categories, such as power cable connectors, labels and lubricants.

Before we get to my concerns, let's discuss the company's financials and why the dividend is rated so highly.

Free cash flow rose significantly from $3.8 billion in 2022 to $5.1 billion last year, though it's still below 2020 and 2021 levels of $6.6 billion and $5.8 billion, respectively.

Of its $5.1 billion in free cash flow last year, 3M paid out $3.3 billion in dividends for a 66% payout ratio. This year, free cash flow is forecast to rise to $5.3 billion and the total dividends paid should increase by roughly $100 million, which would drop the payout ratio to 65%.

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3M has also raised its dividend every year since 1958.

Since Major League Baseball's Opening Day is tomorrow, let's put that into a baseball perspective. In 1958, the Yankees - led by Yogi Berra and Mickey Mantle - surged back from a 3-1 deficit to defeat Hank Aaron's Milwaukee Braves in seven games and win their 18th World Series title.

So the company has a stellar dividend-raising track record, not to mention a strong yield of 5.8% at current prices.

Looking at the financials, 3M can easily afford that dividend...

Or can it?

There are a couple of issues that call the dividend into question.

Find Out My Top 2 Concerns
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