2024年5月31日星期五

♟ Insiders Are Buying – Are You?

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Image of a smiling businessman holding a stack of folders labeled 'Insider Buying'

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"This market is starting to look "toppy" and that's when bargains can be found."

Karim Rahemtulla, Head Fundamental Tactician, Monument Traders Alliance

Karim Rahemtulla

Earnings season is almost over. Last month, it was the banks reporting, and in May we had the last of the major tech stocks reported.

It was a good month for stocks in general, with the vast majority beating estimates and the markets reaching new highs.

So far, the numbers say 80% of those that have reported are coming in ahead of expectations. Granted, the bar has been lowered as many are calling for a slowdown in growth.

But, earnings aside, it's also open season for insiders. In fact, the next few weeks could the most exciting weeks for those who follow one of the, if not the most accurate indicator on Wall Street for longer term investors.

Insiders can start buying their shares after earnings are released and they will point the way to the companies that are the real bargains on Wall Street.

For a few weeks leading into earnings, insiders are not allowed to buy shares in their own companies.

This period is known as the "quiet period". Because earnings and the accompanying information can move the shares sharply up or down, insiders are prohibited from trading in their company shares, unless it's a pre-established plan.

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Insider buying is heating up in the following stocks:

  • Caesars Entertainment (CZR)
  • Globe Life (GL)
  • Sabre Corp (SABR)
  • Shutterstock (SSTK)
  • Sunoco (SUN)
  • Lululemon (LULU)
  • Titan Company (TITN)
  • Shift4 Payments (FOUR)

With all this insider action, I'll be on the lookout over the next few weeks for the following:

  1. Cluster buying: where more than two insiders buy substantial amounts of shares (over $1 million in cumulative buys)
  2. Three's Company: At least three total insiders buy shares and at least two of them must be officers
  3. Sector buying: In this case I am looking for confidence in a sector. This time I am looking for insiders to be buying tech stocks after the recent selloff

These are the strongest signals that the market can send. Because, as Peter Lynch, the most successful fund manager on Wall Street, once quipped: "Insiders buy for only one reason, they think the shares are going higher".

This market is starting to look "toppy" and in my opinion that is when bargains are to be found. And where better to look than the insiders?

They are there day to day, monitoring operations and making future deals. To me there are few better tells than insider buys!

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Fun Fact Friday

Election Years Historically Positive for Markets: The 2024 Presidential Election is a little more than 5 months away, and if history is any indicator, we could be in for positive market returns. There have been 23 elections since the S&P 500 index began. In these election years, 19 of 23 (83%) provided positive performance. Of all those election years, the average return in the S&P 500 was 11.28%.


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