Bitcoin’s post-halving boom is nowhere in sight … why is crypto languishing? … 10,000% bitcoin returns unlocked … why the big picture remains bullish A quick note before we begin today… Our InvestorPlace offices will be closed tomorrow in honor of Independence Day. We're also closed on Friday. If you need help from Customer Service, they'll be happy to assist when we reopen on Monday. We'll continue bringing you Digests over the long weekend. We hope you have a fantastic July 4th celebration with friends and family! "Judging by historical precedents, cryptos should not start really surging until the middle of June. We therefore think patience is required here” So said our crypto expert, Luke Lango, back in May. June has come and gone, and no surge is here. Why? Before we get to that, as a quick recap, bitcoin's fourth halving took place in April. Historically, we typically see a run-up in bitcoin's price leading into the halving, a few months of sideways-to-slightly-down action right around the time of the event itself, then a new major bull market beginning roughly two months later. Well, here we are about three months after the halving and not only has the crypto rally not come, but the sector appears on the verge of a breakdown. From a historical perspective, this is unusual and it's causing some anxiety. Let's go to Luke's latest update from Crypto Investor Network: This is a make-or-break moment. For the first time since August 2023, Bitcoin has dropped below its 25-week moving average. If BTC bounces here, it can still be classified as a minor correction. That's what it did in August 2023. It bounced nicely just below the 25-week moving average and soared from $26,000 to $70,000 over the next few months. However, it increasingly appears that BTC won't "hold the line" at $60,000. If it doesn't, history suggests a drop to the 50-week moving average is likely. The 50-week moving average sits at $47,000, about 20% below current prices. Therefore, it technically appears that we are in either a minor or major correction. As I write Wednesday morning, bitcoin trades at $60,408 – a hair above this critical support level. | ADVERTISEMENT  Legendary trader Tom Gentile predicted the rise of Artificial Intelligence more than five years ago and gave his readers a chance to turn $10,000 into…
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Click here to see the details and save your seat. | To be clear, Luke is confident that Bitcoin remains in a boom cycle and will eventually resume its upward march to new all-time highs, however… Investors should be emotionally prepared for an atypical post-halving correction. For one reason why, we're about to see an artificial wave of bitcoin liquidity hitting the market. Here's CNBC: In a few days, bankrupt Tokyo-based bitcoin exchange Mt. Gox will begin paying back thousands of users almost $9 billion worth of tokens. The platform went under in 2014 following a series of heists that cost it in the range of 650,000 to 950,000 bitcoins, or upward of $59 billion, at current prices… The court proceedings will unlock about 141,000 bitcoins — or roughly 0.7% of the total 19.7 million bitcoins in circulation. Consider that these bitcoins were "locked" back in February 2014 when the crypto traded at about $600. This Mt. Gox bankruptcy turned out to be the best thing that ever happened to these early bitcoin investors, preventing them from cashing in prematurely along the way. Now, they're about to access their tokens that have appreciated more than 10,000%. You can be sure some of these longtime holders will take profits. This will mean a wave of bitcoin liquidity hitting the market – the question is how big of a wave? Either way, as you'll recall from Econ 101, greater supply puts downward pressure on prices. But before we get too bearish, JPMorgan analysts expect this will be a temporary pricing pressure that should resolve by August. From its research note to clients: Assuming most of the liquidations by Mt. Gox creditors take place in July, [this] creates a trajectory where crypto prices come under further pressure in July, but start rebounding from August onwards. This potential for more price weakness creates two imperatives: a plan for what to do in the short-term, and a vision for what to remember about the long-term As to the short-term, if you want to sit through any upcoming volatility, go for it. After all, "HODL" (the famous misspelling of "hold" from a 2013 online crypto post) has been the right strategy for bitcoin investors since Day 1. But if you're looking to trade what could be coming, Luke offers a roadmap: We think the technical strategy here is quite simple. If BTC rebounds here with vigor and powers towards $65,000, buy that rebound. If it keeps fading below $60,000, stay away until major technical support arrives, likely somewhere below $50,000. Luke adds more context, writing that whenever bitcoin loses its 25-week moving average (MA), it usually falls to its 50-week, so trim your position if we lose the 25-week MA. However, bitcoin usually bounces strongly at the 50-week MA, so buy more if/when bitcoin tests this support level. (By the way, every major brokerage platform has tools to help you chart these multi-week moving averages to see exactly where the levels fall.) | ADVERTISEMENT  Legendary trader Tom Gentile is warning… if you don’t prepare for this last phase of the AI boom, you could get crushed in the next 30 days.
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Get the Details Now, Right Here | Shifting to a long-term perspective, given this potential for a 20%+ correction, let's maintain focus on why staying the course is likely to pay off handsomely First, Luke reminds us that bitcoin's price has an enormous emotional component. For now, that's a headwind, but it won't always be the case. Back to Luke: When people are generally feeling good, crypto prices go up. When they are feeling bad, crypto prices go down. People don't feel good right now. Consumer sentiment is crashing. So, too, are crypto prices – which have closely tracked consumer sentiment in the past few years. We therefore believe that general consumer uneasiness about the economy is what's delaying the Fourth Crypto Boom Cycle. We do not expect this uneasiness to last. We expect inflation – which dropped to 2.6% in May – to keep falling. We expect the Fed to cut interest rates in September, and then follow that up with multiple rate cuts into the end of the year. We expect those rate cuts to re-energize the U.S. economy. Post-election clarity in November/December should help. As a result, we think consumer sentiment is going to meaningfully improve between now and the end of the year. As it does, crypto prices should rise. Additional longer-term bullish tailwinds include a series of Ethereum ETFs that should be approved this month. Meanwhile, VanEck just filed for a Solana ETF. It's unlikely to be approved, but it shows forward momentum for the sector. Then there's former President Trump's increased odds of a second term as president. His recent pro-crypto position could be a strong legislative/regulatory tailwind. And even if President Biden wins a second term, the CEO of Kraken (a crypto platform) Dave Ripley recently said on CNBC that the Biden administration is "softening" toward crypto. Then, let's not forget the increasingly dire financial condition of our government and the resulting impact on the purchasing power of our dollars. We view bitcoin as a critical part of an "anti-debasement" portfolio along with assets including high-quality stocks, real estate, certain commodities, and precious metals. | ADVERTISEMENT  While the world has been obsessed with AI and ChatGPT… Jeff Bezos has quietly gone all in on a technology that’s going to prove to be FAR bigger. If you’ve never heard of “QaaS” technology you need to click here now. | But at the end of the day, adoption continues to be key for growth – and on that front, there’s good news When it comes to global payments, Mastercard and Visa are the big dogs. If they're willing to create systems that facilitate the easy use of crypto, that's an enormous boost to global adoption. With that in mind, let's go to CoinDesk: Payments giant Mastercard is exploring how best to collaborate with self-custody wallet firms like MetaMask and Ledger, according to a Web3 strategy workshop report seen by CoinDesk. Mastercard pointed out in a presentation deck that having a payments card helps wallet providers increase the number of active users and build loyalty and other revenue streams while giving cardholders the opportunity to spend their crypto balance in a frictionless way. But wallet firms face significant demands on resources when introducing a card in a new region, which is where Mastercard and its issuance partners come in. The 57-year-old payments technology firm also said it is evaluating "new models for global issuance using stablecoin on chain settlement" and "inexpensive fast chains," according to the deck. The article goes on to note how Mastercard's Engage program will focus on bringing new crypto card programs to market. Meanwhile, Visa has been collaborating with stablecoin USDC and the Solana blockchain to facilitate cross-border payments. It's also looking at ways to reduce Ethereum's gas fees. All these longer-term drivers of adoption are critical to remember during moments like this when sour sentiment increases the odds of a bitcoin pullback. We'll give Luke the final word: We believe macroeconomic conditions will improve in a manner that supports higher crypto prices in the coming months. In our view, the Fourth Crypto Boom Cycle has been delayed – not canceled. Patience is the name of the game now. Have a good evening, Jeff Remsburg | 
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