2024年1月31日星期三

Staring Down the Barrel of Another Dividend Cut?

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AN OXFORD CLUB PUBLICATION

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Is This Stock Staring Down the Barrel of Another Dividend Cut?

John Oravec, Research Analyst, The Oxford Club

John Oravec

In March of last year, Chief Income Strategist Marc Lichtenfeld reviewed firearm manufacturer Sturm, Ruger & Co. (NYSE: RGR) and gave the company's dividend safety a big, fat "F."

At the time, the company's free cash flow growth was terrible, its payout ratio was too high and its dividend was so unpredictable that it was impossible for investors to rely on it for consistent income.

But that was nearly a year ago.

A lot can happen in a year. Perhaps the company has turned the ship around.

After all, 2021 was a fantastic year for Sturm, Ruger & Co. So maybe the analysts were wrong about their 2023 projections and it hit the bull's-eye this year.

That's what we're aiming to find out today.

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The first thing we always look at when it comes to dividend safety is the company's free cash flow - specifically, whether it's expected to increase or decrease from where it was in previous years.

While there are no estimates available for free cash flow in 2023, we can use other factors to make our prediction. Now that we're nearing the release of the company's annual report, analysts have a much better idea of where its financials stand relative to where they were last March.

There's no doubt 2022 was a rough year for the company...

But if things turned around in 2023, that would be fantastic news for the dividend.

Let's dig into the data.

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