The Numbers Don't Lie: The Bulls Are in Charge
By John Persinos
There are many reasons for the current disconnect between a positive macroeconomic environment and negative consumer sentiment. I'll get to that topic in a minute. But first, let's look at why the bull market remains very much alive.
Favorable and negative trends are unfolding in counterpoint, creating a context of deflationary growth. The economy is still expanding, but it's getting restrained enough to keep inflation in check. That's just what the Federal Reserve and Wall Street want to see.
While the Fed takes a breather from its tightening marathon, the economic ripple effects of previous actions are still emerging. Consumers are starting to feel the pinch, resembling marathoners who've just realized they signed up for the full 26 miles, not a 5K. This collective fatigue is the ticket to cooling inflation and giving the Fed a reason to lower rates by year's end.
Rising stock market and housing prices have pushed household net worth to unprecedented levels, fostering a "wealth effect" that encourages spending. The solid jobs market is another bullish factor.
To be sure, this newfound wealth is not spread evenly, and low-income consumers find themselves under mounting pressure. However, as long as inflation continues to decelerate and employment remains robust, the current economic expansion and bull market are likely to persist.
Over the past three years, the U.S. consumer has been the cornerstone of economic growth, propelling both domestic and global expansion.
This resilient spending is particularly notable given the dual challenges of high inflation and elevated interest rates. A strong consumer has in turn been a major impetus behind healthy corporate earnings growth.
Accordingly, U.S. stocks continue to reach new heights, with the S&P 500 last week achieving its 31st all-time high this year (see chart).
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