2024年6月21日星期五

♟ My No. 1 Strategy for Trading Earnings

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"Earnings day isn't the be-all, end-all for potential gains... It's actually just the start"

Nate Bear, Lead Technical Tactician, Monument Traders Alliance

Nate Bear

As we near the end of June and with companies due to report earnings in July, I wanted to share my top strategy for trading earnings.

Now, it's no secret earnings day can change a stock's trajectory.

And it's common for traders to position themselves ahead of earnings in hopes of riding a big upswing or downswing.

But the truth is...

Earnings day is just the start of many, many profit opportunities.

In fact, there's a post-earnings chart pattern I recently discovered that's so potentially lucrative I'm calling it the "Earnings Profit Surge."

This surge occurs after a company reports an earnings beat, and it results in steady gains for the stock over and over again... sometimes for more than two months!

I explain it all - with visual examples - below.

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How to Identify the "Earnings Profit Surge" Chart Pattern

Let me show you a recent example of what an Earnings Profit Surge looks like. Take a look at the chart of artificial intelligence stock Nvidia (NVDA).

Nvidia
 

Notice the earnings gap in the chart. That happened on the day the company reported earnings.

Then the stock was bullish after earnings day - as you can clearly see by the uptick in price.

Now, here's where it gets interesting.

You'll notice the stock continued to go up after the earnings announcement. This rise is what I call the Earnings Profit Surge.

And the two vertical lines show when I'd typically get positioned in the trade based on the three "green light" variables in my TPS system.

Also, notice how the stock goes up, then pulls back, and then goes up again.

This pattern repeats itself all the way through April to the beginning of May...

Meaning there were 30-plus days of consistent positive momentum for this ONE STOCK.

So in theory, you could've traded this ONE TICKER over and over again - based on this pattern alone - for consistent gains.

Here's another example - this one's in Microsoft (MSFT).

Microsoft
 

Notice the similarities to the NVDA chart...

Again, you have the earnings gap, the trading window and the Earnings Profit Surge.

Let's take a look at one more example: Gilead Sciences (GILD).

Gilead
 

Again, we see a major boost after earnings... and then a steady wave of gains and pullbacks.

Once you learn how to identify this pattern, you won't be stuck trying to trade on earnings day.

There will still be plenty of opportunity to profit for months afterward.

In short, earnings day isn't the be-all, end-all for potential gains... It's actually just the start.

Here are a few reasons I love the idea of trading the Earnings Profit Surge:

  1. It gives you several opportunities to trade after earnings come out. More opportunities mean more potential wins.
  2. While it's common to trade on earnings, the truth is you don't always know which direction a stock will go. So you end up betting on whether the stock will go up or down, which is really no different from gambling.
  3. By following the Earnings Profit Surge, you can play the consistent momentum generated by earnings news. It's a simpler, more predictable way to trade.

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