| | | | | Monday, October 28, 2019 | Capital Wave Forecast: A New Narrative Is Behind This New All-Time High Rally By Shah Gilani | Dear Wall Street Insights & Indictments Reader,
Last Monday's Capital Wave Forecast (October 21, 2019) called for the week to be "positive, if not, then a sideways week," which is almost exactly what we got.
Only the sideways part came first and then followed by a Friday rally.
After uneventfulness throughout the week, better than expected earnings outweighed a few heavily knocked-down stocks who missed estimates and guided lower (setting up beats in the future, no doubt), teeing up a Friday run towards all-time highs.
The S&P 500 got above its highs on an intraday basis on Friday but closed just shy of its July 26, 2019 peak of 3025.86, ending just below there at 3022.55.
The now three-week run up for the S&P should be rewarded this week with a finish above its old peak, unless of course, something spooky surprises us this Halloween.
The Dow rose .7% last week to 26,958, which is about 1.5% below its last July all-time peak.
The Nasdaq Composite rose 1.9%, a four-week-in-a-row rally, and ended only 1% from its July peak.
All the checked boxes in the "probably going higher" column I ticked off last week, I'm ticking off again.
Check off a likely good week for earnings, a likely good week in terms of political and geopolitical developments not being an impediment, and most notably, I'm double checking the narratives box this week.
That's because the recession narrative appears to be receding, though there are lots of naysayers in the financial press and analysts still casting stones on the economy marching along at a steady pace.
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