2019年11月30日星期六

How We're Going to Safely Navigate Through Prediction Season

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November 30, 2019

How We're Going to Safely Navigate Through Prediction Season
By Tim Melvin

Dear Reader,

Thanksgiving is behind us now, and this is a big weekend around the Melvin house.

My wife will be dragging out the 172 boxes of Christmas ornaments, and the flock of Christmas Flamingos will once again make its annual appearance on the lawn.

There will be lots of turkey sandwiches and college football to keep me busy, too.

Black Friday has come and gone as well, and we have successfully avoided going anywhere near a major shopping mall.

Best of all, it's the unofficial kickoff of one of my favorite seasons of the year.

No, I'm not talking about the holiday season, in fact, I enjoy this time of year a lot.

I'm talking about the prediction season.

From now until around the end of January, we will be hit with a barrage of predictions.

Scores of well-dressed men and women will be all over the television telling us precisely what will happen next year in the markets and the world.

Every major brokerage firm will release its conclusions about exactly where the S&P 500 will close 2020, where interest rates will settle, and which way the dollar will trade against other major currencies.

They will all be confidently delivered, and almost all of them will be wrong.

The Many Minds of the Markets

Some folks will project a crash of epic proportions. Others will suggest the mother of all rallies in stocks for 2020.

Depending on who you listen to over the next two months, interest rates are either going to go negative, or soar dramatically higher.

We will have a trade agreement according to some of the predictors, and we will not according to others.

Because it's an election year, we will also have predictions about who will win, why they will win, and how the markets will react.

If you take any of this seriously, it will likely cost you money.

The prediction business isn't about making money for investors.

It's the world's longest-running marketing scheme.

If you make a wild claim and it happens to work somewhere along the lines of your projection, you will be the next anointed one on Wall Street.

People will come out of the woodwork to throw money into your fund and pay thousands of dollars to hear you speak.

You will be on television discussing how your crystal ball works and how much better it is than anyone else's.

History tells us that pretty much none of them will ever be right again.

If you're wrong, no one will remember, and you can start working on next year's predictions.

Don't Listen to Predictions. Do This Instead.

I learned long ago that making these sorts of exact and confident predictions was a fool's game.

It's difficult to predict events in the future, and it's practically impossible to predict how the psychological soup of financial markets will react to the event.

Remember when the markets were going to collapse if Donald Trump got elected? Instead, they soared.

I don't know what the stock market will do next year.

At this point, I have no clue who will win the Democratic nomination or the general election.

I don't know how the world will react to the Brexit mess, or what will happen in China and Hong Kong in the year ahead.

High Stakes: A Supremacy Standoff in the South China Sea

I don't know who will win the World Series, or which market segment will be the hottest next year.

I certainly have opinions and I will happily debate them over a bourbon or two, but I won't risk any of cash on them.

With the exception of my annual $5 bet on the Orioles and Cubs to win the World Series, I will invest exactly zero dollars based on my opinions.

What I will do is listen to the numbers, tell me exactly what is happening and invest accordingly.

The numbers will tell me what a stock or asset is so cheap I need to buy it right away. The numbers will tell me when something is so expensive, I should sell it immediately.

I have never made a precise market prediction, nor will I.

Listening to the numbers does a much better job of getting me in at the lows and getting out near the highs in different markets and sectors.

I've been using the numbers to craft quantitative investing strategies for more than 30 years, and using them with spectacular results along the way.

Don't try to predict the markets.

Use the cold, hard logic of the numbers to react to what the market is actually doing instead of betting on guesses.

To the Max,



Tim Melvin


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