2020年8月3日星期一

America, move over… There’s a new #1

Bill Bonner’s Diary

America, Move Over… There’s a New #1

By Bill Bonner

Monday, August 3, 2020 – Week 21 of the Quarantine

Bill Bonner

SAN MARTIN, ARGENTINA – “The U.S. Empire Is Ending?” asks Global Research, citing German resistance to U.S. sanctions against Russian gas.

Meanwhile, China is trying to avoid U.S. sanctions too – by moving away from the U.S.-controlled banking system. Reuters:

Chinese banks urged to switch away from SWIFT as U.S. sanctions loom

So, who’s #1 now? The Gallup Blog:

Since 2017, Germany's leadership style under longtime Chancellor Angela Merkel has earned it higher approval ratings around the world than those for the U.S., China and Russia…

Except in military spending, where the U.S. reigns supreme, America has slipped in nearly every category.

Not that that matters to us. But it helps us understand what is going on.

That is, maybe the slippage is not just because of COVID-19… or last quarter’s economic figures… or the Donald J. Trump administration.

Maybe it’s part of a much longer, deeper pattern…

Keep reading. First, a local update…

Recommended Link

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According to the World Economic Forum, this new technology could be worth $12.7 trillion over the next few years…

That’s 10X the size of Amazon today.

And bigger than mega tech firms like Amazon, Apple, Google, and Facebook combined.

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Last Days in Calchaquí?

The latest word around here is that the airports and borders are opening Sept. 1. We’re booking a flight now… but not without some hesitation.

We’ve enjoyed our enforced idyll, shipwrecked here in the Calchaquí Valley for the last four and a half months.

The sun shines every day. We make a fire in the fireplace in the office in the morning… and one in the wood stove in the bedroom at night.

Alone on this side of the river… we live in splendid isolation…

“Maybe we should just stay here,” came the question from the distaff side of the family. “Our friends keep writing to tell us how lucky we are since we’re not back in the U.S. Makes me wonder…”

We wonder, too.

The FINAL Wave of 5G Millionaires Starts Any Day Now.

Magical Money Tree

Last week came word that the U.S. economy shrank by a third in the second quarter – its worst contraction ever… and that more than a million people lined up for unemployment benefits, for the 19th week in a row.

Alas, the $600 weekly federal bonus expired on Saturday. That bonus meant that the average person without a job was earning more than most people with a job – in many cases, twice as much.

People had lost jobs. They worked fewer hours. Salary and wage income (from creating real goods and services) dropped.

But “transfer payments,” directly from the Federal Reserve’s Magical Money Tree (MMT), went wild. It was as if the feds couldn’t count.

At one point, they were putting nearly four times as much money into the revenue stream as the Lockdown was taking out.

This helped keep consumer spending – at Amazon, especially – alive, and gave the impression that the economy was healthier than it really was.

Therein hangs the important difference between the U.S. economy when America was #1… and the U.S. economy today.

Today, a much larger portion of the money people spend comes from the government’s “printing press” – not from working.

Printing-Press Wealth

We began our career in Washington in 1973 – just two years after the new “paper” money was introduced.

Until then, the only way to gain wealth – other than robbing a bank or going into politics – was to earn it.

You had to provide goods or services that others were willing to pay for. You had to satisfy your customer.

This necessity focused the whole economy on Main Street output – goods and services… real wealth. Automobiles. Machine tools. Clothes. Corn. Television sets.

“We make,” said the sign on the Trenton bridge, “The world takes.”

But Trenton doesn’t make much anymore.

And the part of America’s incomes that comes from producing goods and services has dropped from almost 90% in the early ’70s… to a record low below 67% in the last quarter.

That’s right: In the second quarter of this year, for the first time in history, the feds pushed so many “transfer payments” into the hands of consumers, that more than a third of their money came from the printing press – not from creating real wealth.

This Revolutionary Tech IS the #1 Investment of the Century.

Dead Man’s Curve

Yes, of course, the last quarter was unusual. After all, how many times do the feds shut down an economy?

Like holding your breath until you turn blue, it’s not something you want to do often.

But as odd and rare as the shutdown was, the rise of transfer payments – money from the government – was not as flukish as most people believe.

That is, the appearance of the COVID-19 virus might have been unexpected… an “exogenous shock” as the analysts say… and the Lockdown response may have been a once-in-a-lifetime over-reaction…

…but the track had already been laid… the train had left the station… the conductor was already drunk… and the train was heading to the “dead man’s curve” that wrecked so many other nations and empires in centuries past.

A Trend, Not a Fluke

Already, by the second year of Donald Trump’s time at the engine controls, transfer payments were running at their highest level in history.

In 2017, people earned only about 67% of what they spent compared to 90% in 1973. (We are talking here only of wage and salary incomes… the money rich people got from stock and bond markets was a different, but similar, story.)

That is to say, the economy was already producing less and spending more.

It was already rolling along, hauling a large number of railway bums… some enjoying fine wines and champagne in the dining car, and some huddled on the hard seats…

…all the while tossing the wealth of the past (and the future) into the boiler just to keep going.

If this is a trend… and not just a fluke… can we look ahead and see where it leads?

Maybe. Stay tuned.

Regards,

signature

Bill


Like what you’re reading? Send your thoughts to feedback@rogueeconomics.com.


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The Treasury’s “Soft Default” Is Coming
With rising government debt levels, it may sound like a good idea to bet against the government. After all, it won’t miss any payments or hard default on any financial obligations. But here’s why Postcards From the Fringe e-letter editor Tom Dyson doesn’t recommend it...

MAILBAG

Dear Readers offer their thoughts on Thursday’s Diary, “Reparations for Everybody”...

Dear Bill: You are a ray of rationality in a sea of stupidity. I am trying, mostly in vain, to help family members prepare for an economic disaster, just as I did before 2007, probably with the same level of success (meaning none). So I read your daily missives and feel a sense of relief that you are there as a tether to sanity. Please, even if you occasionally repeat yourself, keep saying it. It gives me a sense of security.

– Robin D.

Unlike much of the financial news I read, which is stuck in the weeds, your commentary goes right to the jugular. You know your history and how to integrate it into your writing. Your column always makes my day, even when the news is horrible.

– Bob K.

Ok Bill. You outdid yourself on this. I almost wet myself laughing. Unfortunately, there are people out there who would read it as a serious solution for society’s current issues. Thanks for injecting some levity into our “Twilight Zone” environment. It’s much needed.

– Brian H.

For some time, I have been somewhat disappointed in your commentaries. As I read through this one, I had to LOL a number of times, as this may have been your best yet. I needed a good, healthy laugh.

However, I am a little concerned for your wife as this commentary makes me think you may have been quarantined too long in that backcountry of Argentina and are losing it... all because of that terrible coronavirus that has you trapped. And with my own experience with the Polio virus in 1930 – when I was two years old – you may be there for a few years. Of course, people are smarter now about these viruses and may get a vaccine soon. It took about 20 years before the Salk vaccine was invented, but just in time for my three kids born in 1953-1961.

Perhaps you should get some of your cowboys to come and play games with you and your wife. Sometimes, it’s nice to have people around to get ideas for your next commentary.

– Donald B.

You seem to have forgotten about the hard of hearing and deaf people! Extra payment must be given to those whose jobs were the source of their hearing impairment, such as aircraft mechanics. While you are nice and quiet inside the cabin with a cool drink, the poor licensed aircraft and powerplant mechanic is outside having his hearing damaged by the noise, meanwhile repairing your flight so it could carry you to your destination.

My hearing was done in by the early jets, before the possibility of hearing loss was discovered due to jet engine noise. So where is my check? I am betting you never have even considered the people whose lives are changed for your convenience.

– John R.

An absolute joy to read, a laugh with every sentence. Unfortunately, the audience for your humor is shrinking fast. Victimhood has superseded personal achievement in the common culture. Thanks and please keep it coming.

– Janine P.

Is America in a “Twilight Zone” environment, like Brian says? Has victimhood superseded personal achievement today, as Janine believes? Write us at feedback@rogueeconomics.com.

IN CASE YOU MISSED IT…

Impossible! Pentagon releases 50-year-old Technology to Save 5G

This is an ALL-OUT 5G emergency.

Telemedicine, virtual schools, and 97 million Americans working remotely have put America’s current networks under immense pressure.

We need 5G NOW more than ever. It’s a matter of economic survival.

So the government made a radical decision that once seemed impossible.

It released a 50-year-old technology to help deploy 5G.

Verizon, AT&T, T-Mobile, Apple, Samsung, Nokia, Qualcomm… all NEED this technology to take 5G mainstream…

It promises to open up a $274 billion market and usher in the FINAL stage of 5G millionaires.

If you want to be one of them here’s what you must do now:

Click this link to get an urgent briefing with full details.

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