2020年12月7日星期一

This “Economic Earthquake” Is Delivering Triple-Digit Gains

Legacy Research Group

December 7, 2020

Chris Lowe
Chris Lowe

Doug Casey – an economic earthquake is coming… How to set yourself up for life-changing gains… In the mailbag: "Of course the Tesla story is silly on paper"…


It's the secret to building life-changing wealth…

Here at The Daily Cut, we focus on getting the big picture right.

As Legacy Research cofounder Bill Bonner puts it, “The secret to building wealth is being in the right place, at the right time.”

Think radio stocks in the 1920s… or internet stocks over the past 25 years… or cryptocurrencies over the past decade.

You can complicate it all you like. But getting exposure to a market megatrend early on… and sticking with it… is your best path to life-changing profits as an investor.

You don’t have to catch one of these moves with precision timing, either.

You’ll often worry you’re too early… or too late. But as long as you get the direction of the move right… and stick with it for the long run… you’re in with the chance of generating life-changing wealth.

You don’t even have to pick the “right” stocks…

Sure, some of the stocks that benefit from a megatrend will outrun others in their sector. But it’s a case of a rising tide lifting all boats.

In fact, it’s better to be in the “wrong” stock in a booming sector than the “right” stock in a sector that’s tanking.

That’s why, today, I (Chris Lowe) will shine the spotlight on what our other cofounder, Doug Casey, calls a “gigantic economic earthquake.”

It’s already delivered triple-digit gains this year, as you can see from the chart below.

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I’ll reveal the names of these “earthquake” investments below. They’re up 100%… 226%… and 674% so far in 2020.

Those are huge gains. For comparison, U.S. stock market bellwether the S&P 500 is up 14% so far this year.

But all signs point to this being just the early stages of a much larger… longer… and even more profitable boom.

Regular readers will be familiar with Doug’s bio…

He literally wrote the book on profiting in times of economic turmoil… like the one we’re living through today.

His book Crisis Investing spent 29 consecutive weeks as No. 1 on The New York Times bestseller list. It became the best-selling financial book of 1980, selling nearly half a million copies.

Since then, Doug has become best known as an international speculator – especially in the natural resource sector.

And he set up an independent financial publishing outfit, Casey Research, to show regular investors how to profit from the strategies he has used to make several small fortunes. (Casey Research is now part of Legacy Research Group.)

So when Doug talks about an “economic earthquake” coming, we pay attention…

I’m talking about the electric vehicle (EV) revolution…

In a nutshell, cars that burn fossil fuels will go the way of the dodo. And battery-powered cars will replace them.

Doug says the consequences will be profound…

Just think of past examples where one source of power has replaced another on a massive scale.

Take the internal combustion engine (ICE) that revolutionized transportation in the early 20th century.

This didn’t just change how we got from A to B. It also minted a new class of millionaires in the automobile sector. The oilmen who drilled for and refined the fuel ICEs needed to run also got rich.

The advent of the ICE also sent thriving businesses into oblivion. For example, it spelled disaster for the blacksmiths who shod horses and the folks who made buggy whips.

Here’s Doug with more…

There’s a famous picture that was taken of 5th Avenue in 1901. The whole street is chockablock with horses and buggies. There’s one motorcar in front of a building among the mass of horse-drawn vehicles. In 1913 another picture was taken of the exact same place. There’s only one horse and buggy on a street bumper-to-bumper with motor vehicles. Things changed radically in just more than a decade.

Doug says the same kind of radical change is about to happen again…

I speak as a lifelong car guy. I’ve owned high-performance cars and played with them my whole life – racing sports cars, stock cars on ovals, and quarter-mile drag racing tracks.

EVs are far superior to internal-combustion-engine vehicles. They’ve got every possible advantage. They handle better because of a much lower center of gravity. They’re more economical. They’re much faster. Much quieter. And they’re more reliable because they have vastly fewer moving parts.

Every major car company in the world is going electric. Mercedes, BMW, Porsche, even General Motors and Ford – who tend to lag behind on everything. This is really something. It’s a megatrend.

I know some folks are skeptical of EVs. And some aren’t sold that manmade global warming is real.

But as I mentioned up top, whatever your view is, one thing is for sure – this megatrend is already delivering triple-digit gains for early investors.

Why Are Cannabis Stocks Suddenly Soaring?

Remember that chart with the question marks I showed you?

Here it is again with the names and ticker symbols of those “earthquake” investments added in.

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Tesla (TSLA) is the world’s leading EV maker and the world’s most valuable automaker. It’s up 623% so far in 2020.

But as I’ve been showing you, betting on pricey auto stocks isn’t the only way to play this boom.

The batteries that power every Tesla contain 53 pounds of nickel, lithium, cobalt, and manganese – metals a mining company has to dig out of the ground and then process.

Although the precise weights change, these metals – among others – are also critical components in the batteries that power other EVs on the road.

And mining them is an expensive, capital-intensive, often complicated enterprise that’s fraught with risk. Meanwhile, supply of some of these battery metals is scarce. This is causing a rush of money into these metals and the companies that mine them.

Lithium mining stocks are skyrocketing as a result…

Take Piedmont Lithium (PLL). It recently agreed to supply Tesla with the lithium it needs for its batteries.

This year, Piedmont Lithium’s share price surged 214%.

The Global X Lithium & Battery Tech ETF (LIT) is the lithium mining exchange-traded fund I put on your radar in my July 2 dispatch as a “one-click” way to play the EV revolution.

It’s up 68% since then. And it’s up 99% so far in 2020.

This megatrend is still in its infancy…

At our Strategic Investor advisory, Dave Forest has given his readers the chance to make gains of 196% and 227% on lithium mining stocks this year.

And he says this megatrend is a no-brainer, despite the already outsized gains it’s delivered. Dave…

Lithium, nickel, cobalt… these metals are critical for the EV revolution. EVs also need a ton more copper, which is used in wiring, than ICE vehicles. Without these metals there are no EVs. It’s that simple.

I’m not a tech guy. I work in mining. And I can tell you that miners are struggling to find sufficient supplies of these metals. In some cases, they’re produced in only a few countries around the world.

That insight blew my mind… when Dave first pointed out the connection between the world of tech and the world of mining.

Most folks see mining as an outdated, old-world industry. And you won’t see Jim Cramer jumping up and down about the mining stocks of these obscure metals on CNBC too often.

But with world-changing tech such as EVs coming on strong, mining for these critical minerals is anything but outdated. It’s at the cutting edge of the tech revolution.

Dave calls lithium the “tech fuel” of the 21st century…

It’s easy to see why. Batteries containing lithium power everything from yachts to laptops to smartphones… and any tech with a rechargeable battery.

These batteries are even critical in the buildout of 5G wireless networks – another of the tech megatrends we track for you.

Old lead-acid batteries like the ones in ICE cars aren’t strong enough to keep a 5G base station running. 5G signals require more power than the current 4G networks. So you need lithium batteries to keep them running.

And supply is nowhere near close enough to meeting all that demand. Dave again…

Just take EVs. Last year, the world made about 410,000 tonnes of lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE). It’s the lithium end-product that goes into EV batteries.

If EVs make up half of all car sales in 15 years – which are the projections – that’s about 58 million EVs on the road. Each one will need about 59 kilograms of LCE. That works out to 3.4 million tonnes – or seven times more than all the LCE the entire world produces today.

And if the supply of something can’t keep up with demand, prices will rise. It’s one of the few iron laws of how markets work.

LIT is still a great way to profit from this megatrend…

Tech billionaires Jeff Bezos and Bill Gates have already invested in lithium mining. So has the billionaire founder of the Virgin Group, Richard Branson.

Elon Musk is also getting involved.

LIT allows you to do the same thing without the billions… and through your regular online broker. This one fund gives you exposure to 41 stocks involved in lithium mining, lithium refining, and battery production.

As I mentioned, it’s up 68% since I first passed along this recommendation to you in July.

But if Doug and Dave are right, that’s just the start of a much longer and more profitable rocket ride for this sector.

Look out for more on this profit theme later this week. As you’ll see, the shifting political sands in Washington point to an even more furious rally ahead…

In the mailbag: “Of course the Tesla story is silly on paper”…

On Friday, Legacy cofounder Bill Bonner kickstarted a debate in his daily e-letter, Bill Bonner’s Diary.

As he surveyed the soaring prices in the U.S. stock market, he wondered about the future of EV maker Tesla…

Today’s stock market valuation suggests (with an average-ish multiple of 12) that the company would have to generate $600 billion in sales in order to justify the current share price.

And let’s see… there are about 90 million vehicles sold, worldwide, each year… for about $1.8 trillion in sales revenue.

Is Tesla really going to sell a third of all the cars in the world? Is it really worth more than half a trillion dollars – more than all the other major car companies combined? Has Elon Musk really earned a $139 billion fortune?

One reader shared Bill’s doubts about whether Tesla can remain a market leader…

All Tesla’s profits come from traditional car companies, such as VW, GM and Ford. They are required by governments to buy electric-vehicle credits from Tesla, since they do not make the required minimum percentage of electric cars.

Tesla makes 100% electric cars. So it has credits to sell. The day that program ends, or the other companies can sell enough EVs to meet the minimums, Tesla goes out of business.

– Tom A.

Another reader warned against underestimating Tesla…

Gotta respectfully disagree on this one. I remember it took Amazon a few years to go from punching bag to ruler of the world. And the stock price concurs.

Of course the Tesla story is silly on paper, but automakers are beholden to the internal combustion engine. Your few token examples won’t touch Tesla because a) people love the cars, and b) China is more interested in going carbon neutral than we are… and they don’t have an entrenched, outdated auto industry.

China will be in early. We’ll be in late. Both will want Teslas. Does that translate to the valuation? Probably not, but it makes more sense than bitcoin at $20k in my opinion.

– Mike M.

Are you bullish on Tesla? Or is its stock overvalued, as Bill Bonner suggests? Join the debate at feedback@legacyresearch.com.

Regards,

signature

Chris Lowe
December 7, 2020
Bray, Ireland

Like what you’re reading? Send your thoughts to feedback@legacyresearch.com.

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