The other day I was reading about a neural network that could predict a moving average a few days into the future.
That's an interesting assumption to buy a stock or stock index when it's above its moving average.
Why?
Because that's often the perfect time to sell!
Lines 3 and 4 above prove that fact.
When the EMA is above the SMA, you sell.
That's typically when you'd see a trend-line breakout...which means this strategy is selling when old school TA is buying.
The stock market has undergone a dramatic change since the advent of index futures in the 80's.
That's why books like Technical Analysis of Stock Trends from 1948 are completely backwards.
Now you might be wondering why the heck I'd show the exact rules to this strategy?
Wouldn't I keep this under wraps?
Well, first of all, I'm writing to the marginal mind here -- the 40% on the fence that I might be able to get to see the light.
I'm not writing to the 20% diehards that will go to the grave believing in nonsense.
Secondly, you could use this strategy to make a better return than 95% of money managers -- they're mostly terrible so you might as well fire them.
Thirdly, this is stuff I was using back in 2006...we're an order of magnitude beyond these techniques.
A loyal fan notified my team that my work was being ripped off a few months ago.
I took a look and frankly didn't care. It's like watching a re-run of The Love Boat -- still kinda funny, but dated.
没有评论:
发表评论