Smart Money Says...

Smart Money Says...   Corona Del Mar, CA   Howdy ,   In poker, you don't just play the cards...you play your opponents.   The same is true about the markets...   ...because the vast majority of traders and investors are relying on made up  numbers.   This paper clearly shows that earnings estimates are total guesses.   How?   Because the number "5" show up too often...which is evidence they're mostly guessing.   Benford's Law shows that numbers start with "1" about 30% of the time, then taper off with "9" being the least likely number.   The IRS runs tax returns through a computer looking for anomalies outside of Benford's Law (although it didn't catch Madoff since apparently, he knew all about it).   So if companies are just pulling numbers out of their rear, then maybe, just maybe, we shouldn't use those numbers.   Make sense?   That's why I'd rather see what traders are doing with their money instead of playing the earnings/news game.   For example, the Smart Money Strategy uses weekly COT data to reveal what small traders in the E-mini S&P 500 are doing...   ...and then bet against them!   That has worked since I started publishing the signals in 2006.   An even better source is using T.A.P data to see where global funds are flowing...the A.I snoops out patterns in the data like a detective looking for fingerprints, and then generates highly accurate trade signals.   It has been so accurate that I've got this devilish itch to roll up my sleeves and kick-start a hedge fund of my own... for accredited investors (I legally wouldn't be able to start one for non-accredited, and I'm certainly not soliciting any funds).   But hey, I'm getting ahead of myself.   The Smart Money is still on a "buy" signal for the S&P 500.   We're in a new bull market, and those fighting it are going to continue to get smashed against the rocks -- perhaps for years to come.   I'm reminded of 1998, 2001, 2002, 2009, 2011, 2018, 2020.   The powers that be changed the rules of the game before nearly every one of these bear market bottoms.   And we all know it's hard to play a game when the rules keep changin'.   So play your game...not theirs.   P.S. I've closed all services to non-members. Getting ready for a new chapter with Portfolio Boss. More about that tomorrow...   Trade smart,   Dan "Prince of Proof" Murphy                         Portfolio Boss, Inc. 260 Newport Center Dr, Suite 100 Newport Beach, CA 92660   Don't want to stay in the loop with Dan? We'll be sad to see you go, but you can unsub to no longer receive emails.