Phew! The Latest PCE Report Brings No Nasty Surprises
By John Persinos
Wall Street just heaved a sigh of relief. The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) on Thursday released the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) index for January and the data met expectations. Let the stock market rally resume!
Two weeks ago, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported the producer price index (PPI) for January, which showed surprisingly "sticky" inflation. Ever since, investors have been apprehensive about inflation.
By contrast, Thursday's PCE is welcome news that paves the way for further equity gains. We're also enjoying a bull market in cryptocurrency; more about crypto's explosive rise in a minute.
The PCE index edged slightly lower in January, matching consensus expectations. The PCE report brought glad tidings for investors, home buyers, and consumers, because the reading suggests the inflation-fighting Federal Reserve will stick to its moderate stance on monetary policy.
The "core" PCE (excluding volatile food and energy costs), which the Fed watches closely, increased 0.4% for the month and 2.8% from a year ago, as expected in both cases.
Headline PCE increased 0.3% monthly and 2.4% on a 12-month basis, compared to respective estimates for 0.3% and 2.4%.
January's PCE increase reflected the continuing shift from goods to services, as the economy stabilizes from pandemic-induced disruptions.
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