I included bands to filter out outliers. 50% of the samples were within the grey area. You can see how they widen over time, which shows how predictions become less and less accurate over time.
Makes sense, right?
However, the upward bias perfectly fits with what I've been saying for months: we're in a HOT new bull market, and the low statistical significance studies like inverted yield curves would be wrong.
You're a PB subscriber, so you know that seeing hundreds of trades is ideal, while little nuggets of evidence with a handful of occurrences are pointless for trading.
Economic forecasters just want to be right. Deep down, they care little about making money. It's an ego thing. They would rather collect maps instead of perusing the treasure they point to.
Technology is the driving force behind growth. So that's where I place my attention. Did you know the world economy was only growing at 0.1% per year before the first Industrial Revolution? It 10x'ed mostly due to the steam engine in the 18th century.
I'm sure economists completely missed the boat on that breakthrough as well.
Now we're in the 4th Revolution: Thinking machines. I've seen some well thought out papers on how feedback loops could produce 30% and higher annual global GDP growth. That's not a typo.
Sites like Metaculus show that the forecast for AGI keeps getting closer and closer.
I pay attention to forecasts in aggregate because they harness the Wisdom of the Crowds (great book).
AGI is now looking more like 2026 instead of the 2030's that I was expecting.
And if that wasn't enough, Google just came out with a new World Model named Genie Monday that can create playable virtual worlds from a text prompt or image.
Just last week it was Sora and a 100x improvement over text-to-video from just a year ago.
Are you noticing that things are speeding up?
Let's stay cool, and calmly follow our trading strategy's signals. Just be aware that we have the ingredients for a MASSIVE bull market where everything seems over-valued.
You don't want to miss out on this.
I'm writing a brand new report about my findings. Thing are changing so fast, I had to re-write a bunch of it.
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