2019年8月31日星期六

How You Can Be Prepared When the Storm Comes

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August 31, 2019

How You Can Be Prepared When the Storm Comes
By Tim Melvin

Dear Reader,

I'm just about to finish up getting ready for the hurricane that's been heading towards Florida all week.

We expect it to come ashore on the eastern side of the state, but we will still be seeing plenty of high winds and rain.

We had time to read the signs and understand that the storm was coming and with each day's report, it became clear that it was heading our way.

It's an annual ritual down here in Florida, and you get used to anticipating and preparing for the storms.

We know they will happen, so we do what we have to do to get ready.

Sadly, most investors don't do the same for their portfolio.

The stock market has periodic storms that ruffle prices, but no one ever seems to see them coming.

The only ones who ever predict a storm in stocks are those who predict them all the time, which means those folks just aren't very useful.

Most pundits and prognosticators maintain a bullish outlook because that's what people want to hear.

As my first sales manager in the brokerage business told me thirty years ago, sometimes you have to feed the dogs what they like and not what is actually good for them.

Now, I'm too smart to predict when the stock market will correct its excesses, just as I know better than to try to predict exactly what path a hurricane might take accurately.

All I can do is prepare when conditions are right for a storm to head in my direction.

On Friday, we took all the Lanai furniture into the garage, removed any debris from the lawn that might become airborne, and made sure the pool overflow valves were working correctly.

We could get the edges of the storm, or we could take a direct hit. There's no way of knowing in advance, so we prepare for the worst.

I think we should do the same when it comes to the stock market.

The Conditions Are Tough to Ignore

The economy is slowing to the point that we need ultra-low interest rates to keep it from collapsing.

Earnings were down this past quarter, and analysts are lowering estimates for the rest of the year.

The trade war with China isn't going well, and neither side gives any indication of backing down.

We are ten years into a bull market, and valuations are on the high side of average.

This doesn't mean we should run out and sell all our stocks, or go 100% short in our portfolio.

We could get a quick 15-20% correction and a pause rather than a full-blown bear market.

Sometimes it's best to ride out the storm, so you're in a position to benefit when the sun returns.

It does mean that this is probably not the time to go out and buy a bunch of high-flying tech stocks, or load up on clinical-stage biotech companies.

Make sure you love what you own and if you don't love it, sell it and hang onto the cash until we get better pricing after a decline.

We knew a week ago that the conditions were favorable for a hurricane to develop and started thinking about what needed to be done.

We gassed up the vehicles, checked the supply closet, and went to the bank for some extra cash.

There was no way of knowing if the storm would survive the trip to South Florida, but just in case, we didn't want to be running around in a panic.

Life Imitates the Market

The occasional storm is the price we pay for spending Christmas in the pool and going to the beach in January.

I view the stock market in the same way.

The occasional sell-off is the price we pay for exposure to one of the greatest wealth-building mechanisms in the world.

We can see that conditions are right for a correction.

We have no way of knowing when or even if it will happen.

We don't know how far the decline might go, but we do know that risks are building and we need to be prepared for some volatility.

Review your holdings carefully. Cut your exposure to high risk, or financially weaker companies.

Stockpile cash and be ready for anything that might happen in the days and weeks ahead.

Above all, anticipate how much money you will be in a position to make by being prepared and having cash on hand when we do see a sell off.

After all, fortunes are born in bad markets and harvested in bull markets.

To the Max,



Tim Melvin

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