Through the Looking Glass: A New Age is Coming Dear Daily Prophecy Reader, As I was wrestling with what to write for today, my lovely managing editor Nicole inspired a prompt. She hinted to me that today is both her birthday and Halloween. Perhaps I could make something of that! So this is a Halloween-Nicole Daily Prophecy (coming to you a day later). Halloween surely offers an excuse for a spooky trumpery of tricks and tweets, trade wars, terrifying pterodactyls winging in on the cover of Scientific American, unicorns tumbling into Initial Public Offering (IPO) pratfalls, equity bear hugs, multi-trillion-dollar deficit horrors honing in on us from everywhere, and bulls loose in China shops and supply chains. At the end after all the tricks, Nicole's birthday may even give us a treat. Perhaps, for people working in crowded offices, there are larger investible opportunities in real 10 gigabit Wi-Fi 6 than even in pie-in-the-sky 5G next-generation wireless. In my pile of recent publications, I had no problem finding further Halloween tricks. From The Economist's glam glower of "Elizabeth Warren's plan to remake American capitalism" and the growling bears of Barron's "Bracing for 2020," to the Atlantic's paranoid palpitations over the power of Jeff Bezos and Amazon Prime, I merely had to step through the looking glass and into the world of the mad hatters of the mainstream media. Once through the looking glass, I plunged into a terror-trail phantasmagoria, resembling my "terror Halloween half-marathons" at Thacher Park nearby. There would be uncanny coils of time reflux (negative interest rates that say the clocks are running backward), and eerie diminuendos of "secular stagnation" (that signify an ever-slowing pace of innovation). There would be twisted yield curves that portend recession and crash, and weird Halloween revenue surprises at Texas Instruments (TI) and other trade casualty chip companies. We should watch for overreactions to microchip setbacks. Everywhere I looked there would be climate change horror-stories and harrowing predictions of a Chinese debt crash and global slump. Haunting the think tanks and serioso foreign policy circles would be the US war naval college, huffing-and-puffing about Chinese expansion and island-building in the South China seas. But as I've said before, we'd be ghoulish to ignore the opportunities this country provides… Boo! Here Comes China Newt Gingrich's book, Trump vs. China, which I wrote about yesterday, contained an entire chapter about this tedious subject. It's a new era, folks. China is at least 20 times stronger than it was. The idea of the US continuing to dominate the South China seas makes no more sense than China dominating the Gulf of Mexico. I'm not worried about any of that stuff, since I understand the upside message from the Pooley-Tupy time-price paradigm. Measured by the number of hours of work needed to earn the money to buy crucial goods and services, the world economy continues to boom and debt burdens continue to shrink. In true time-price terms, interest rates remain around 3.6%. This is around the normal true rate that held for British consols (treasuries) over the 200 years of the gold standard. If interest rates aren't truly negative and innovation continues to thrive, the economic horror stories of Halloween go away. |
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