| | | You are receiving this as part of your subscription to Oil & Energy Investor. To remove your email from this list, unsubscribe here. | | | | | | | Wednesday, January 29, 2020 | What Coronavirus Really Means for the Oil Market By Dr. Kent Moors | This morning as I write this, both primary crude oil benchmarks - WTI (West Texas Intermediate, the standard for future contracts in New York) and Brent (the more broadly used global yardstick set daily in London) - are modestly improving, up 0.8 percent and 1.3 percent, respectively. This follows slight gains by close yesterday (0.6 and 0.5 percent).
However, the last week has been quite a different story. For the five days of trade through close on Monday, WTI had retreated a hefty 8.9 percent while Brent was down 8.4 percent. And the current WTI improvement has as much to do with an unexpected decline in US inventories than any better view of the underlying cause of the preceding drop.
Present crude prices are not reflecting oil supply and demand considerations. This is all about coronavirus (or what is becoming known as the Wuhan flu after the Chinese city where it emerged), the latest Chinese disease scare. Now this is not yet a true global crisis, although documented cases in China now exceed 6,100. To put that in perspective, the total is already greater than the SARS cases (also a coronavirus) in 2002-2003. That was the last epidemic that impacted oil prices in a similar manner.
Why the connection?
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