With respect to the market, we should keep in mind that we don't need continuation of the outsized growth from 2021 to push stocks higher. What we do need, however, is an environment of improving earnings outlook, with estimates stable or steadily going up. And that's exactly what we have at present. We make the following two points in support of this view: First: The revisions trend has turned positive again, after modestly turning negative ahead of the start of the 2022 Q1 earnings season. What this means is that while estimates for 2022 Q1 had modestly come down after the period got underway at the start of January, we are seeing the opposite trend in play with respect to estimates for 2022 Q2 and beyond. Earnings for S&P 500 companies are currently expected to increase by +5.1% in 2022 Q2, which is up from +2.8% growth expected at the end of March 2022. We are seeing a similar favorable revisions trend for estimates for the second half of the year as well. Second: The above referenced favorable turn in the revisions trend is currently concentrated in the Energy and a few other sectors like Medical, Autos and Construction. But it is reasonable to expect this positive trend to spread to other sectors as the full extent of their earnings resilience comes through in their quarterly results. Looking at full-year 2022 earnings estimates, aggregate estimates have gone up by +3% since the start of January and by more than +1.7% since the start of April. In fact, full-year 2022 estimates for a number of sectors have started inching up since the beginning of April, after remaining under pressure during the first three months of the year. Positive revisions to Energy sector estimates are undoubtedly the biggest reason for keeping the net revisions trend in the green. But a strong case can be made that the recent turnaround in the revisions trend for the Transportation and Finance sectors in the wake of their Q1 earnings releases will in time expand to a number of the other sectors as well. In other words, the outlook for earnings is at a minimum very stable, if not altogether improving going forward. The fact is that there is no fundamental reason for stocks to lose ground as long as interest rates remain stable and earnings estimates maintain their current trend. The bottom line is that there is significant upside to current consensus earnings estimates. And an environment of rising earnings estimates and stable interest rates should keep stocks on an upward trajectory. Putting It All Together In the ongoing Q1 earnings season, companies are not only coming out with impressive results, but also providing positive guidance for the current period and beyond even as they explain the cost pressures and supply-chain challenges. Current estimates for this year and next represent strong earnings growth, but we remain very confident that the growth pace should continue to go up as a result of favorable estimate revisions. In fact, there is a strong likelihood that the outlook for economic and earnings growth will turn out to be a lot stronger than currently reflected in consensus estimates. Importantly, there is simply no signs of the doom-and-gloom scenario that some in the market are afraid of. The stock market's positive momentum is grounded in the fundamental reality of an improving earnings outlook and a very stable interest rate environment. While there are reasonable concerns about the interest rate backdrop given the Fed's current posture, we see no reasons to fear an unstable interest rate regime. All in all, an environment of stable earnings and interest rates is a market-friendly environment. How to Take Advantage Today is an ideal time to get aboard this market. That's why I'm inviting you to download our just-released Special Report 5 Stocks Set to Double. Each stock was handpicked by a Zacks expert as their personal favorite to have the best chance of gaining +100% and more in the months ahead: Stock #1: A Top Dog with Consistent Growth Stock #2: Technology that Could Drive the Next Decade's Innovation Stock #3: Recovery is in Full Swing Stock #4: A Small Player Says "No Thanks" to a Monopolist Stock #5: A Current Market Leader Set to Release Blockbuster Lineup The earlier you get into these new stocks the higher their profit potential. Previous editions of this report have racked up some huge gains. Examples include Boston Beer Co. +143.0%, NVIDIA +175.9%, Weight Watchers +498.3% and Tesla +673.0%.¹ To put the odds of success even more in your favor, you are also invited to look into our unique arrangement called Zacks Investor Collection. It gives you access to the picks and commentary from all our long-term portfolios in real time for the next 30 days. Plus, it includes Zacks Premium research so you can find winning stocks, ETFs and mutual funds on your own. Last year alone, they closed 68 double and triple-digit wins. There have already been 14 more in 2022. Gains have reached as high as +150.9%, +348.7%, and even +995.2%.¹ The opportunity to download this just-released Special Report, 5 Stocks Set to Double, ends midnight Sunday, May 1. Get started now with Zacks Investor Collection and 5 Stocks Set to Double » Thanks and good trading, Sheraz Mian Sheraz Mian serves as the Director of Research and manages the entire research department. He also manages the Zacks Focus List and Zacks Top 10 Stocks portfolios. He invites you to access Zacks Investor Collection. |
没有评论:
发表评论