A Trump Surge Rattles Wall StreetMarket Sizzle: Bond selloff, dollar domination, hiring slowdown, and bird flu's dairy impact
Are we headed for another Trump-era shakeup? The markets sure think so! The recent political rumblings have investors on edge and U.S. bonds in a tailspin. Hold on tight; this ride is just getting started! Trump Trade Chaos
The chance of Trump returning sparked a selloff in U.S. bonds. Investors think tax cuts could increase deficits and inflation. Treasury yields, which rise when bond prices fall, surged after a debate that hurt Biden's re-election chances. If Republicans win, they might extend tax cuts, reducing revenue by $4 trillion over ten years. Biden wants to extend cuts only for those making under $400,000. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield climbed above 4.45%. Analysts debate whether a Republican win would actually mean higher yields. Investors believe economic data and Fed signals will impact Treasury yields most in the coming months. The Fed is currently waiting to see how things develop before changing rates. Jobs Slow, Fed Cut Expected
The U.S. job market cooled down in June. Fewer jobs were added than expected, and more people started looking for work, leading to a slight rise in the unemployment rate. This slowdown is the biggest since early 2021. It also means that paychecks aren't growing as fast as they were before. These changes are good news for the Federal Reserve (the Fed). They've been trying to slow down the economy to fight rising prices (inflation). With the job market cooling and pay raises slowing, they might even decide to cut interest rates to make borrowing money easier. This could help President Biden, who's been facing some criticism lately, as it might boost the economy. There are still some concerns, though. Some industries, like manufacturing, lost jobs. And while more people are looking for work, it's taking them longer to find jobs. This shows that even though the job market is still strong, it's starting to change. Dollar Dominates Global Markets
U.S. tourists are flocking abroad, thanks to a strong dollar. The American currency has soared, boosting buying power overseas. It’s up 15% against the yen and 2.3% against the euro. With higher interest rates and a dynamic economy, the dollar is near its highest levels of the year. This means cheaper imports and travel for Americans. Tourists are spending big on trips and souvenirs. Many Americans are traveling more, helping foreign economies. Nearly three million travelers passed through TSA on June 23, a record high. The dollar’s strength makes trips more affordable, but it also crowds destinations and raises local prices. Some travelers are looking to places like Eastern Europe for better deals. As the yen weakens, fewer Japanese tourists visit the U.S., impacting places like Hawaii. Higher U.S. interest rates and economic growth keep the dollar strong. Bird Flu Devastates Dairy Farms
Dairy farmers face a new challenge: bird flu. It has hit dairy farms in 12 states since March, reducing milk production. The flu can curb milk output by 10-20% for weeks. Federal health officials worry about human health risks, though the commercial milk supply remains safe. The virus has infected 136 cattle herds and four workers, who have all recovered. The flu spreads from cow to cow and through equipment. In Idaho, affected farms lose up to a fifth of their milk production for weeks, costing $10,000 a day in lost revenue. Farmers are boosting biosecurity to protect their herds. The USDA offers emergency aid, but not all farmers find it worthwhile. The flu adds financial pressure on an already struggling industry. Quick Sizzles:
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2024年7月5日星期五
A Trump Surge Rattles Wall Street
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