The PPI Surprise: A New Twist on the Economic Roller Coaster
By John Persinos
My daughter Jennifer is now married with kids of her own. But when she was a pre-teen and we lived in Massachusetts, she regularly dragged me onto a vintage roller coaster at an amusement park in nearby New Hampshire.
Built in 1930, this "family friendly" ride was a rickety wooden contraption called The Yankee Cannonball. Jen loved it. I dreaded it.
I thought about the Yankee Cannonball today, in the wake of the latest inflation report. It seems the economy's progress against inflation is just as precarious.
Inflation data has become the economic roller coaster we didn't sign up for: one month showing promising declines, the next revealing a spike that sends us reeling, only to calm down again just as we're bracing for the worst.
On Thursday, we got a surprisingly good consumer price index (CPI) report. Investors cheered. Then on Friday, the producer price index (PPI) arrived unexpectedly hot. Wall Street's mood soured. You can bet that the besieged White House isn't too happy, either.
Investors are wondering if we'll ever find a steady rhythm in this inflation fight. Adding to the investment uncertainties are geopolitical tensions, a wild U.S. presidential race, and monetary policy that toggles between doves and hawks.
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) on Friday reported that the PPI unexpectedly climbed in June to its highest rate since March 2023. That's a negative development for the U.S. economy and stock market, one day after the government announced that the CPI in June fell on a monthly basis for the first time in four years.
The PPI is a gauge of wholesale prices and as such it serves as a leading indicator for inflation. The BLS revealed that the PPI was 2.6% (non-seasonally adjusted) for the 12 months ended in June, rising from the 2.4% annual rate seen in May (see chart).
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