Egg prices: What does the data say? Corona Del Mar, CA   Howdy !   I didn't want to write this, but I was asked to...and I promise this will help with your trading...and possibly give you peace of mind...   Yup, eggs sure are expensive!   What ticks me off is that my trust of government is at about zero, and I have to analyze whether or not something nefarious is going on.   So let's push aside anecdotal evidence and jump into the numbers.   First of all, we see the price of eggs now collapsing...down about $2 per dozen (-40%) since December: That's great news right? It won't take long for those prices to reflect when you go shopping.   For added confirmation, here's the spot price for large white eggs: There are a bunch of TikTok videos floating around with people complaining about their chicken feed and hens not laying eggs.   That's anecdotal evidence and will get you in trouble. It needs to be aggregated or it's worthless.   What I can show you is that millions of hens were slaughtered in early 2022: I confirmed this data with states like Wisconsin because I've discovered a lot of fake data at the federal level (regarding temperature, not chickens).   The number of hens dropped 6.7% by June 2022 (avian flu).   How bad did egg production get?   Down about 6.2% in December 2022 (not shown on this chart, but it gives you an idea of what the drop looked like). December was a high-demand month because of Christmas, so prices spiked.   Can you guess the next high demand month?   That's right, April, because of Easter.   The good news is that hens start laying eggs by around five months of age...   ...and as of yet, there are no trans chickens, so the number of hens is accurate and should increase supply (and lower prices).   So is there a way to make some trades on eggs?   Unfortunately there aren't any egg ETFs or futures.   However...   Now is a great reminder to talk about the last time the public started getting interested in food commodities.   Last March, the wheat ETF (WEAT) became over-priced by 8%.   In other words, it's True Asset Price (TAP) was 8% lower, and everyone buying was very foolish.   They could go into the futures market for 8% cheaper prices, so "foolish" isn't too far off. Wheat is down 37% from that peak. So the lesson is to check the dang TAP before making an ETF trade so you aren't left holding the bag.   You could even short the over-priced ETFs, and go long the under-priced ones.   Just make sure you're INFORMED and not trading by the seat of your pants.   And for the love of all that is holy, stay away from anecdotal evidence. Trade smart,   Dan "Prince of Proof" Murphy                                                 Portfolio Boss, Inc. 260 Newport Center Dr, Suite 100 Newport Beach, CA 92660   About us: Created by our founder, Dan Murphy, Portfolio Boss 1.0 was released in 2014 as an alternative to mainstream back testing software. Although it was slow and clunky at first, it quickly grew because it offered scientific testing on large baskets of stocks and ETFs, including a ranking engine, and used a simple drag and drop strategy builder. No programming required. Also helping matters was the release of the popular report, The Relaxed Investor, with over 500,000 downloads and counting. Inside its pages laid the foundation for rotational investing, proven since 1926. Portfolio Boss quickly morphed into a multi-strategy trading machine with completely new concepts such as strategy stacking, spigoting, and meta-strategic trading. After years of development, Portfolio Boss morphed once again into the first automated A.I strategy builder with massive parallel cloud computing available to the public. With over 3,500 computer cores, "The Boss" was born. Not only can it invent trading strategies using human-made indicators, it also programs itself using C code. Currently, The Boss has been running for over 1900 years of compute time. Starting in 2022, The Boss was updated to include uncommon data such as fund flows and True Asset Pricing to improve strategies by a factor of 18x to 36x over indexing. What's next? Intraday trading and automation for starters. Our goal is to provide hedge fund level A.I tools for everyday kitchen counter traders.   Don't want to stay in the loop with Dan? We'll be sad to see you go, but you can unsub to no longer receive emails.   Government required disclaimer: The results listed herein are based on hypothetical trades. Plainly speaking, these trades were not actually executed. Hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain inherent limitations. Unlike an actual performance record, simulated results do not represent actual trading. Also, since the trades have not actually been executed, the results may have under (or over) compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors such as lack of liquidity. You may have done better or worse than the results portrayed.