2019年9月30日星期一

A Busy October Awaits, Jobs On Deck This Week, Trade Talks Next Week, Earnings Season Throughout

Plus New Zacks Strong Buys for Monday, September 30

Profit from the Pros

A Busy October Awaits, Jobs On Deck This Week, Trade Talks Next Week, Earnings Season Throughout

Stocks closed lower on Friday, and lower for the week.

It was a busy week that was dominated by political headlines. But a closer look at the market showed traders mostly shrugged it off.

Heading into Friday, the market was barely down for the week. And during the early part of Friday, stocks were up. But they turned south later on. Not on politics, but on reports that the WH was considering limits on U.S. investment into China.

Some reports suggested that could include delisting Chinese companies from U.S. stock exchanges; restricting U.S. government pension funds from investing in Chinese companies; and limiting U.S. managed indexes' exposure to Chinese companies as well.

Reports noted that this topic was in the very early stages of discussion. So nothing is going to happen anytime soon. But judging by Friday's reaction, it would not be well received by the marketplace if it were. And it would likely be disastrous for China.

But my guess is this is likely just a negotiating tactic by the administration ahead of October's trade talks. While both countries want to make a deal, you can be sure they are each trying to exert as much leverage and pressure on the other as possible.

Again, we will have to see what happens. But by all accounts, that idea is in the very early stages of discussion, so the market doesn't need to worry about this anytime soon.

Separately, let me also say that I wouldn't read too much into Friday's/last week's pullback either.

After 3 up weeks in a row (sans last week and the week before), which sent stocks to within striking distance of their all-time highs, they were due for a pullback ahead of the upcoming trade talks.

As we outlined before, the next layers of support for the S&P come in at 2,948.83 (the 50-day moving average); 2,938.84 (which is a gap left on the chart from September 4th); then 2,914.39 (gap from September 3rd); and then finally 2,890.03 (gap left on the chart from August 28th).

None of those areas have to be hit.

But if they were, I wouldn't be surprised in the least.

And I'd be a buyer on those dips.

But I'd be equally unsurprised if we skipped the dips, and just went higher instead.

So be prepared to buy on an upside breakout as well.

Because it looks like there's a lot more upside to go.

See you tomorrow,

Kevin Cook

Senior Stock Strategist, Zacks Investment Research

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